Hyundai Mobis현대모비스
012330 · KOSPI · ₩MOBIS · 현대모비스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩328,399
vs the current price (₩353,000)
- Enterprise value
- ₩28T
- Equity value
- ₩29T
- WACC
- 8.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩141,387
- −59.9%
- Base
- ₩328,399
- −7.0%
- Bull
- ₩639,666
- +81.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.9%).
Revenue growth
- 5.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 19.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.88
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.82, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩62T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩2T
- Shares
- 89,820,585
- Share price
- ₩353,000
- Market cap
- ₩32T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩59T | ₩57T | ₩61T | ₩66T | ₩69T | ₩72T | ₩75T | ₩77T |
| Growth | 14.2% | −3.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩2.3T | ₩3.1T | ₩3.4T | ₩3.2T | ₩3.4T | ₩3.5T | ₩3.7T | ₩3.8T |
| EBIT margin | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩1.7T | ₩2.2T | ₩2.4T | ₩2.3T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.6T | ₩2.6T | ₩2.7T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.7T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T |
| − Capital spending | ₩1.9T | ₩2.4T | ₩1.5T | ₩2.2T | ₩2.3T | ₩2.4T | ₩2.5T | ₩2.5T |
| − Working capital | −₩3.4T | ₩3.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩667B | ₩616B | ₩567B | ₩495B | ₩427B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩1.2T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.8T |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.919 | 0.844 | 0.775 | 0.712 | 0.654 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
Terminal value ₩33T, worth ₩22T today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩574,879 a share)Now 0.61× | ₩273,0190.47× | ₩311,7240.54× | ₩446,3360.78× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩40,441 a share)Now 8.73× | ₩232,6735.75× | ₩288,5167.13× | ₩390,9809.67× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩26,625 a share)Now 13.3× | ₩153,1865.75× | ₩189,9527.13× | ₩257,4129.67× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | ₩355,690 | ₩369,292 | ₩385,125 | ₩403,814 | ₩426,242 |
| 8.3% | ₩330,816 | ₩341,835 | ₩354,504 | ₩369,246 | ₩386,642 |
| 8.8% | ₩309,160 | ₩318,162 | ₩328,399 | ₩340,165 | ₩353,851 |
| 9.3% | ₩290,144 | ₩297,547 | ₩305,887 | ₩315,369 | ₩326,261 |
| 9.8% | ₩273,318 | ₩279,442 | ₩286,281 | ₩293,981 | ₩302,731 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩32T
- Enterprise value
- ₩29T
- P/E
- 8.7×
- P/B
- 0.6×
- P/S
- 0.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.8%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩373,000 | ₩236,500 | ₩237,000 | ₩200,500 | ₩254,500 |
| Market cap | ₩34T | ₩21T | ₩21T | ₩18T | ₩23T |
| P/E | 9.2× | 5.2× | 6.2× | 7.2× | 9.7× |
| P/B | 0.7× | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.6× |
| P/S | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 2.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyundai Mobis | 8.7× | 0.6× | 0.5× | — | 1.8% |
| SL | 6.0× | 0.9× | 0.4× | 3.7× | 0.0% |
| HL Mando | 10.7× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| Samhyun | — | 12.1× | 17.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai WIA | 19.4× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 2.4% |
| SNT Dynamics | 13.0× | 0.7× | 0.8× | — | 7.0% |
| SNT Motiv | 7.0× | 0.6× | 0.6× | — | 7.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.7× | 0.7× | 0.5× | 3.7× | 2.2% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Hyundai Mobis / 현대모비스 / 012330 / KRX:012330
Source: KRX statistical information