KOSPI · 012450 · Aerospace & Defense · ₩HANWHAAERO

Hanwha Aerospace한화에어로스페이스

012450 · KOSPI · ₩HANWHAAERO · 한화에어로스페이스

₩760,000▼ ₩27,000 (3.43%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,084,728

vs the current price (₩760,000)

Enterprise value: ₩69T
Equity value: ₩56T
WACC: 6.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 43% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩760,000, the model needs an operating margin of 7.2% every year (it uses 9.3%).
Or revenue growth −6.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩32T, operating profit ₩4.5T (14.0% margin) (3 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩35T, operating profit ₩5.5T (15.7% margin) (3 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Margins ranged from 5.8% to 15.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Today's P/E is 19.4× against a typical 20.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩490,483; −35.5%
Base: ₩1,084,728; +42.7%
Bull: ₩2,120,809; +179.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.3%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 125%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (59.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 219.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (59.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 314%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (59.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 48.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (59.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (59.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin9.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation5.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending6.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital-10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.22, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩30T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩7.9T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩2.6T; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩8.2T
Shares: 51,563,401
Share price: ₩760,000
Market cap: ₩39T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩9.4T	₩11T	₩27T	₩37T	₩45T	₩51T	₩55T	₩57T
Growth	43.1%	20.1%	137.6%	25.0%	19.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.0%
EBIT	₩691B	₩1.7T	₩3.1T	₩3.5T	₩4.2T	₩4.7T	₩5.1T	₩5.3T
EBIT margin	7.4%	15.4%	11.6%	9.3%	9.3%	9.3%	9.3%	9.3%
After-tax EBIT	₩501B	₩1.3T	₩2.2T	₩2.5T	₩3T	₩3.4T	₩3.7T	₩3.8T
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩2T	₩2.4T	₩2.8T	₩3T	₩3.1T
− Capital spending	₩571B	₩754B	₩2T	₩2.5T	₩3T	₩3.5T	₩3.8T	₩3.9T
− Working capital	−₩3.6T	−₩923B	₩5.6T	−₩749B	−₩730B	−₩626B	−₩434B	−₩166B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩2.7T	₩3.1T	₩3.4T	₩3.4T	₩3.2T
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.937	0.877	0.822	0.770	0.721
Present value	—	—	—	₩2.6T	₩2.7T	₩2.8T	₩2.6T	₩2.3T

Terminal value ₩78T, worth ₩56T today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩232,702 a share)Now 3.27×	₩219,2880.94×	₩707,9613.04×	₩1,914,4898.23×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩39,100 a share)Now 19.4×	₩374,4129.58×	₩802,61520.5×	₩1,497,63838.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩49,370 a share)Now 15.4×	₩472,7509.58×	₩1,013,41820.5×	₩1,890,98638.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
5.8%	₩1,115,600	₩1,263,218	₩1,450,262	₩1,694,899	₩2,028,490
6.3%	₩981,963	₩1,100,048	₩1,245,981	₩1,430,888	₩1,672,729
6.8%	₩871,600	₩967,987	₩1,084,728	₩1,229,000	₩1,411,800
7.3%	₩778,928	₩858,925	₩954,219	₩1,069,636	₩1,212,270
7.8%	₩700,016	₩767,344	₩846,438	₩940,655	₩1,054,767

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩39T
Enterprise value: ₩47T
P/E: 19.4×
P/B: 3.3×
P/S: 1.3×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.9%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩941,000	₩326,500	₩124,500	₩73,600	₩48,000
Market cap	₩49T	₩17T	₩6.4T	₩3.8T	₩2.5T
P/E	34.5×	7.3×	7.9×	18.9×	9.8×
P/B	5.0×	3.4×	1.8×	1.3×	0.9×
P/S	1.8×	1.5×	0.7×	0.6×	0.4×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	0.7%	1.1%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Hanwha Aerospace	19.4×	3.3×	1.3×	—	0.9%
Korea Aerospace Industries	55.2×	5.2×	2.2×	—	0.5%
LIG Defense&Aerospace	32.8×	5.9×	2.0×	—	0.7%
Satrec Initiative	66.8×	2.5×	3.0×	39.6×	0.2%
Firstec	16.8×	2.8×	0.7×	—	0.0%
Samyang Comtech	8.3×	1.4×	1.5×	—	0.0%
Vitzro Nextech	—	4.4×	6.3×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	32.8×	3.6×	2.1×	39.6×	0.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hanwha Aerospace / 한화에어로스페이스 / 012450 / KRX:012450

Source: KRX statistical information