Kyung-In Synthetic경인양행
012610 · KOSPI · ₩012610 · 경인양행
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩3,964
vs the current price (₩2,995)
- Enterprise value
- ₩342B
- Equity value
- ₩165B
- WACC
- 5.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩3,964
- +32.4%
- Bull
- ₩14,232
- +375.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.0%).
Revenue growth
- -1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 6.4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.63
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.45, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩407B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩162B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩10B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩25B
- Shares
- 41,616,365
- Share price
- ₩2,995
- Market cap
- ₩125B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩345B | ₩374B | ₩380B | ₩399B | ₩396B | ₩398B | ₩405B | ₩418B |
| Growth | −14.2% | 8.3% | 1.5% | −1.9% | −0.7% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩2.2B | ₩24B | ₩16B | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩25B |
| EBIT margin | −0.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩1.6B | ₩18B | ₩12B | ₩17B | ₩17B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩18B |
| + Depreciation | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩25B | ₩26B | ₩26B | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩28B |
| − Capital spending | ₩30B | ₩24B | ₩15B | ₩26B | ₩25B | ₩25B | ₩26B | ₩27B |
| − Working capital | −₩12B | −₩21B | −₩2.6B | −₩3.1B | −₩1.1B | ₩792M | ₩2.9B | ₩4.9B |
| Free cash flow | ₩4.9B | ₩38B | ₩24B | ₩21B | ₩19B | ₩17B | ₩16B | ₩14B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.948 | 0.898 | 0.851 | 0.806 | 0.764 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩20B | ₩17B | ₩15B | ₩13B | ₩11B |
Terminal value ₩349B, worth ₩267B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩6,088 a share)Now 0.49× | ₩3,0920.51× | ₩4,1210.68× | ₩6,6901.10× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩484 a share)Now 6.18× | ₩3,7747.79× | ₩6,53913.5× | ₩16,16533.4× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩959 a share)Now 3.12× | ₩7,4747.79× | ₩12,95213.5× | ₩32,01733.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | ₩5,180 | ₩5,938 | ₩6,990 | ₩8,553 | ₩11,132 |
| 5.0% | ₩4,058 | ₩4,562 | ₩5,228 | ₩6,152 | ₩7,524 |
| 5.5% | ₩3,182 | ₩3,527 | ₩3,964 | ₩4,542 | ₩5,342 |
| 6.0% | ₩2,480 | ₩2,719 | ₩3,013 | ₩3,387 | ₩3,879 |
| 6.5% | ₩1,905 | ₩2,071 | ₩2,271 | ₩2,517 | ₩2,828 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩125B
- Enterprise value
- ₩287B
- P/E
- 6.2×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.7×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩4,875 | ₩2,715 | ₩3,850 | ₩4,090 | ₩6,940 |
| Market cap | ₩203B | ₩113B | ₩160B | ₩170B | ₩289B |
| P/E | 36.0× | 7.4× | — | 11.9× | 11.8× |
| P/B | 0.8× | 0.5× | 0.7× | 0.7× | 1.3× |
| P/S | 0.5× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8× | 5.7× | 16.5× | 7.4× | 9.8× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyung-In Synthetic | 6.2× | 0.5× | 0.3× | 5.7× | 0.0% |
| LG Chem | — | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 0.9% |
| Hanwha Solutions | — | 0.6× | 0.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanwha | 6.2× | 0.4× | 0.1× | — | 1.2% |
| SKC | — | 2.1× | 2.0× | — | 0.0% |
| KCC | 0.9× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 8.7× | 0.0% |
| Kumho Petro Chemical | 5.2× | 0.4× | 0.4× | — | 1.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 5.2× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 8.7× | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Kyung-In Synthetic / 경인양행 / 012610 / KRX:012610
Source: KRX statistical information