KOSDAQ · 012790 · Biotech & Pharma · ₩012790

Shinil Pharmaceutical신일제약

012790 · KOSDAQ · ₩012790 · 신일제약

₩6,270▼ ₩70 (1.10%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩15,172

vs the current price (₩6,270)

Enterprise value: ₩142B
Equity value: ₩182B
WACC: 7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 142% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩6,270, the model needs an operating margin of 4.7% every year (it uses 13.7%).
Today's P/E is 15.1× against a typical 6.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩10,847; +73.0%
Base: ₩15,172; +142.0%
Bull: ₩22,540; +259.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.7%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 10.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 20.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 31.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 42.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin13.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation4.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending5.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital33.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩87B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩40B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩5M; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 11,986,415
Share price: ₩6,270
Market cap: ₩75B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩89B	₩89B	₩81B	₩87B	₩88B	₩89B	₩91B	₩94B
Growth	11.4%	0.3%	−9.9%	0.2%	0.9%	1.6%	2.3%	3.0%
EBIT	₩14B	₩15B	₩7.4B	₩12B	₩12B	₩12B	₩12B	₩13B
EBIT margin	15.7%	17.0%	9.2%	13.7%	13.7%	13.7%	13.7%	13.7%
After-tax EBIT	₩10B	₩11B	₩5.4B	₩8.6B	₩8.7B	₩8.9B	₩9.1B	₩9.3B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩3.8B	₩3.9B	₩3.9B	₩4B	₩4.1B
− Capital spending	—	—	₩4.5B	₩4.8B	₩4.8B	₩4.9B	₩5B	₩5.2B
− Working capital	−₩15B	−₩3.9B	₩1.4B	₩59M	₩264M	₩473M	₩691M	₩922M
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩7.6B	₩7.5B	₩7.4B	₩7.4B	₩7.4B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.932	0.868	0.809	0.754	0.703
Present value	—	—	—	₩7.1B	₩6.5B	₩6B	₩5.6B	₩5.2B

Terminal value ₩159B, worth ₩112B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩12,834 a share)Now 0.49×	₩6,0670.47×	₩8,1870.64×	₩13,7261.07×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩416 a share)Now 15.1×	₩2,2585.43×	₩2,8746.91×	₩5,89114.2×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩269 a share)Now 23.3×	₩1,4615.43×	₩1,8596.91×	₩3,81214.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.3%	₩15,963	₩16,858	₩17,960	₩19,348	₩21,152
6.8%	₩14,849	₩15,562	₩16,421	₩17,477	₩18,808
7.3%	₩13,912	₩14,489	₩15,172	₩15,996	₩17,009
7.8%	₩13,114	₩13,587	₩14,139	₩14,794	₩15,583
8.3%	₩12,426	₩12,818	₩13,270	₩13,800	₩14,427

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩75B
Enterprise value: ₩35B
P/E: 15.1×
P/B: 0.5×
P/S: 0.9×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 3.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩6,070	₩6,430	₩7,710	₩8,500	₩11,700
Market cap	₩73B	₩77B	₩92B	₩102B	₩140B
P/E	9.7×	5.4×	6.8×	8.4×	21.0×
P/B	0.5×	0.5×	0.7×	0.8×	1.2×
P/S	0.9×	0.9×	1.0×	1.3×	2.3×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	3.1%	3.0%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Shinil Pharmaceutical	15.1×	0.5×	0.9×	—	3.0%
Samsung Biologics	31.9×	7.6×	13.9×	—	0.0%
Celltrion	27.9×	2.5×	9.0×	—	0.0%
Alteogen	79.4×	28.6×	60.3×	—	0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals	15.2×	6.0×	7.1×	—	0.0%
Yuhan	23.2×	2.3×	2.4×	30.2×	0.8%
HLB	—	15.4×	54.3×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	27.9×	6.8×	11.4×	30.2×	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shinil Pharmaceutical / 신일제약 / 012790 / KRX:012790

Source: KRX statistical information