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Hy-Lok

013030 · KOSDAQ · ₩013030 · 하이록코리아

₩30,800▼ ₩100 (0.32%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩89,241

vs the current price (₩30,800)

Enterprise value
₩832B
Equity value
₩1.1T
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 190% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩30,800, the model needs an operating margin of 6.0% every year (it uses 25.9%).
  • Margins ranged from 12.9% to 27.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 6.3× against a typical 7.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩67,078
+117.8%
Base
₩89,241
+189.7%
Bull
₩125,606
+307.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (25.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 5.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 25.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.35, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩225B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩223B
− Minority interests
₩5.2B
Shares
11,768,144
Share price
₩30,800
Market cap
₩362B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩189B₩191B₩215B₩237B₩249B₩259B₩268B₩276B
Growth3.3%0.9%12.6%5.5%4.9%4.2%3.6%3.0%
EBIT₩52B₩50B₩59B₩61B₩64B₩67B₩69B₩72B
EBIT margin27.5%26.3%27.5%25.9%25.9%25.9%25.9%25.9%
After-tax EBIT₩38B₩36B₩43B₩44B₩47B₩49B₩50B₩52B
+ Depreciation———₩6.4B₩6.7B₩7B₩7.2B₩7.5B
− Capital spending₩6.5B₩3.7B₩10B₩8.1B₩8.5B₩8.8B₩9.1B₩9.4B
− Working capital−₩103B₩13B₩3.5B₩4.9B₩4.6B₩4.2B₩3.7B₩3.2B
Free cash flow———₩38B₩40B₩43B₩45B₩47B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩35B₩35B₩35B₩34B₩33B

Terminal value ₩940B, worth ₩661B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩40,032 a share)Now 0.77×₩25,4800.64×₩31,2080.78×₩36,4000.91×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩4,886 a share)Now 6.30×₩31,5826.46×₩36,4007.45×₩50,69910.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩5,006 a share)Now 6.15×₩32,3596.46×₩37,2957.45×₩51,94410.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩93,084₩98,876₩106,006₩114,998₩126,699
6.8%₩86,482₩91,136₩96,750₩103,660₩112,375
7.3%₩80,932₩84,732₩89,241₩94,682₩101,378
7.8%₩76,199₩79,346₩83,028₩87,398₩92,670
8.3%₩72,118₩74,753₩77,802₩81,370₩85,605

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩362B
Enterprise value
₩139B
P/E
6.3×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
1.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.4%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩30,750₩25,150₩26,650₩20,500₩16,750
Market cap₩362B₩296B₩314B₩241B₩197B
P/E7.2×6.2×6.6×7.1×10.1×
P/B0.8×0.7×0.8×0.6×0.6×
P/S1.7×1.6×1.7×1.3×1.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.4%4.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hy-Lok6.3×0.8×1.6×—4.4%
POSCO Holdings16.1×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.7%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.1×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings11.5×0.5×0.3×9.2×4.2%
Sama Aluminium—4.0×2.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hy-Lok / 하이록코리아 / 013030 / KRX:013030

Source: KRX statistical information