Dongwon Development동원개발
013120 · KOSDAQ · ₩013120 · 동원개발
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,940
vs the current price (₩1,995)
- Enterprise value
- ₩306B
- Equity value
- ₩176B
- WACC
- 6.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩422
- −78.8%
- Base
- ₩1,940
- −2.7%
- Bull
- ₩5,030
- +152.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.9%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.2, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩335B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩136B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩7.1B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩649M
- Shares
- 90,808,100
- Share price
- ₩1,995
- Market cap
- ₩181B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩737B | ₩520B | ₩387B | ₩302B | ₩282B | ₩272B | ₩271B | ₩279B |
| Growth | 26.7% | −29.4% | −25.6% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩30B | ₩21B | ₩17B | ₩21B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩19B |
| EBIT margin | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩22B | ₩15B | ₩12B | ₩15B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩14B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩0 | ₩0 | ₩0 | ₩0 | ₩0 |
| − Capital spending | ₩0 | ₩194M | ₩14M | ₩0 | ₩0 | ₩0 | ₩0 | ₩0 |
| − Working capital | ₩100B | −₩63B | ₩112B | −₩13B | −₩8.1B | −₩3.9B | −₩217M | ₩3.3B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩29B | ₩22B | ₩18B | ₩14B | ₩11B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.944 | 0.890 | 0.840 | 0.793 | 0.748 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩27B | ₩20B | ₩15B | ₩11B | ₩8B |
Terminal value ₩301B, worth ₩225B today: 74% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩11,655 a share)Now 0.17× | ₩2,2300.19× | ₩2,9940.26× | ₩5,3420.46× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩285 a share)Now 7.01× | ₩1,2424.36× | ₩1,6435.77× | ₩3,29511.6× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩259 a share)Now 7.69× | ₩1,1314.36× | ₩1,4965.77× | ₩2,99911.6× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | ₩2,301 | ₩2,582 | ₩2,955 | ₩3,478 | ₩4,262 |
| 5.5% | ₩1,917 | ₩2,118 | ₩2,375 | ₩2,718 | ₩3,196 |
| 6.0% | ₩1,609 | ₩1,757 | ₩1,940 | ₩2,175 | ₩2,488 |
| 6.5% | ₩1,357 | ₩1,468 | ₩1,602 | ₩1,769 | ₩1,982 |
| 7.0% | ₩1,148 | ₩1,231 | ₩1,331 | ₩1,452 | ₩1,602 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩181B
- Enterprise value
- ₩317B
- P/E
- 7.0×
- P/B
- 0.2×
- P/S
- 0.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 4.5%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩2,790 | ₩2,355 | ₩3,160 | ₩3,420 | ₩5,340 |
| Market cap | ₩253B | ₩214B | ₩287B | ₩311B | ₩485B |
| P/E | 9.7× | 11.7× | 6.7× | 4.6× | 6.7× |
| P/B | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.5× |
| P/S | 0.7× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 3.2% | 3.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dongwon Development | 7.0× | 0.2× | 0.5× | — | 4.5% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction | 23.7× | 1.1× | 0.4× | — | 0.8% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction | — | 1.5× | 0.8× | — | 0.0% |
| GS Engineering & Construction | 19.7× | 0.5× | 0.2× | — | 1.7% |
| DL E&C | 3.6× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 1.5% |
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering | 14.4× | 1.4× | 1.2× | 8.1× | 0.0% |
| Ipark Hyundai Development | 8.8× | 0.5× | 0.4× | — | 2.9% |
| Similar companies (median) | 14.4× | 0.8× | 0.4× | 8.1× | 1.2% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Dongwon Development / 동원개발 / 013120 / KRX:013120
Source: KRX statistical information