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Speco

013810 · KOSDAQ · ₩013810 · 스페코

₩1,530▼ ₩73 (4.55%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩49B
Equity value
−₩38B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,530, the model needs an operating margin of 2.9% every year (it uses −8.8%).
  • Margins ranged from −20.9% to 5.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−8.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 6.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -8.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩33B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩12B
+ Stakes and investments
₩695M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩1.4B
Shares
14,655,470
Share price
₩1,530
Market cap
₩22B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩23B₩27B₩38B₩35B₩37B₩39B₩41B₩42B
Growth−26.0%18.3%39.6%6.9%5.9%4.9%4.0%3.0%
EBIT−₩4.1B−₩5.7B−₩461M−₩3.1B−₩3.3B−₩3.5B−₩3.6B−₩3.7B
EBIT margin−18.0%−20.9%−1.2%−8.8%−8.8%−8.8%−8.8%−8.8%
After-tax EBIT−₩3B−₩4.1B−₩334M−₩2.3B−₩2.4B−₩2.5B−₩2.6B−₩2.7B
+ Depreciation———₩71M₩75M₩79M₩82M₩84M
− Capital spending₩13M₩123M₩150M₩106M₩112M₩118M₩123M₩126M
− Working capital−₩15B−₩5.8B₩2.4B₩400M₩366M₩322M₩275M₩215M
Free cash flow———−₩2.7B−₩2.8B−₩2.9B−₩2.9B−₩2.9B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———−₩2.5B−₩2.4B−₩2.3B−₩2.2B−₩2.1B

Terminal value −₩54B, worth −₩38B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,049 a share)Now 0.50×₩2,4450.80×₩3,7641.23×₩5,4951.80×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%—————
6.9%—————
7.4%—————
7.9%—————
8.4%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩22B
Enterprise value
₩9.8B
P/E
49.8×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,365₩3,520₩3,285₩4,580₩5,780
Market cap₩35B₩52B₩48B₩67B₩85B
P/E———109.8×47.0×
P/B0.8×1.2×1.1×1.5×1.7×
P/S0.9×1.9×2.1×2.2×1.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Speco49.8×0.5×0.7×—0.0%
Doosan Enerbility208.4×4.6×2.1×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor82.2×24.4×33.1×74.0×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,121.0×13.7×36.0×2,158.2×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,006.5×51.3×151.2×—0.0%
EO Technics44.8×6.5×10.9×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,664.7×914.4×736.1×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)664.7×19.1×34.5×1,116.1×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Speco / 스페코 / 013810 / KRX:013810

Source: KRX statistical information