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Daeyoung Packaging

014160 · KOSPI · ₩014160 · 대영포장

₩2,595▲ ₩40 (1.57%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩903

vs the current price (₩2,595)

Enterprise value
₩40B
Equity value
₩20B
WACC
6.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 65% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,595, the model needs an operating margin of 2.9% every year (it uses 2.1%).
  • Or revenue growth +27.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩903
−65.2%
Bull
₩8,565
+230.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.1%).

Revenue growth

  • -2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 7.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 10.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -2.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩289B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩35B
+ Stakes and investments
₩15B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
21,678,909
Share price
₩2,595
Market cap
₩56B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩283B₩281B₩284B₩283B₩281B₩282B₩287B₩296B
Growth−6.3%−0.9%1.0%−2.1%−0.8%0.4%1.7%3.0%
EBIT₩11B₩923M₩882M₩6B₩5.9B₩5.9B₩6B₩6.2B
EBIT margin3.9%0.3%0.3%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%
After-tax EBIT₩8B₩669M₩639M₩4.3B₩4.3B₩4.3B₩4.4B₩4.5B
+ Depreciation———₩16B₩16B₩16B₩17B₩17B
− Capital spending₩5.5B₩22B₩34B₩21B₩21B₩21B₩21B₩22B
− Working capital−₩17B−₩13B−₩2.9B−₩620M−₩231M₩115M₩489M₩878M
Free cash flow———₩684M₩294M−₩51M−₩425M−₩812M
Discount factor———0.9420.8880.8370.7880.743
Present value———₩644M₩261M−₩43M−₩335M−₩603M

Terminal value ₩54B, worth ₩40B today: 100% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩8,858 a share)Now 0.29×₩5,1040.58×₩6,5880.74×₩12,8751.45×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩361 a share)Now 7.19×₩3,64310.1×₩8,53523.7×₩13,70838.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.1%₩1,238₩1,401₩1,614₩1,906₩2,333
5.6%₩956₩1,068₩1,209₩1,393₩1,645
6.1%₩731₩808₩903₩1,023₩1,180
6.6%₩547₩601₩665₩744₩844
7.1%₩393₩431₩475₩527₩591

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩56B
Enterprise value
₩91B
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,365₩5,020₩5,680₩7,650₩12,949
Market cap₩116B₩109B₩123B₩166B₩281B
P/E77.7×—15.5×12.9×27.9×
P/B0.6×0.6×0.7×1.0×1.7×
P/S0.4×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.9×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Daeyoung Packaging—0.3×0.2×—0.0%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper9.9×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.4×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.5×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Hansol Paper7.3×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
Similar companies (median)8.6×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Daeyoung Packaging / 대영포장 / 014160 / KRX:014160

Source: KRX statistical information