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Korean Drug

014570 · KOSDAQ · ₩014570 · 고려제약

₩2,840▼ ₩5 (0.18%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩12,217

vs the current price (₩2,840)

Enterprise value
₩98B
Equity value
₩134B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 330% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,840, the model needs an operating margin of 0.2% every year (it uses 14.3%).
  • Margins ranged from 11.1% to 22.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 28.9× against a typical 8.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩9,194
+223.7%
Base
₩12,217
+330.2%
Bull
₩17,381
+512.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -7.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -5.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-7.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 14.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩65B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩36B
+ Stakes and investments
₩131M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
11,000,000
Share price
₩2,840
Market cap
₩31B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩81B₩73B₩63B₩60B₩57B₩56B₩56B₩58B
Growth1.7%−10.3%−14.4%−7.9%−5.2%−2.4%0.3%3.0%
EBIT₩18B₩9.1B₩6.9B₩8.6B₩8.2B₩8B₩8B₩8.2B
EBIT margin22.2%12.5%11.1%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%14.3%
After-tax EBIT₩13B₩6.6B₩5B₩6.2B₩5.9B₩5.8B₩5.8B₩6B
+ Depreciation———₩1.5B₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.4B
− Capital spending₩5.9B₩1B₩475M₩1.9B₩1.8B₩1.8B₩1.8B₩1.8B
− Working capital−₩25B−₩52M−₩5.9B−₩2.1B−₩1.3B−₩548M₩67M₩671M
Free cash flow———₩7.9B₩6.8B₩5.9B₩5.3B₩4.9B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩7.4B₩5.9B₩4.8B₩4B₩3.4B

Terminal value ₩103B, worth ₩72B today: 74% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩7,165 a share)Now 0.40×₩3,7520.52×₩5,9170.83×₩8,5021.19×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩98 a share)Now 28.9×₩5665.75×₩8768.91×₩2,05920.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩12,816₩13,433₩14,192₩15,148₩16,391
6.8%₩12,022₩12,512₩13,102₩13,827₩14,741
7.3%₩11,354₩11,749₩12,217₩12,780₩13,473
7.8%₩10,784₩11,107₩11,484₩11,930₩12,468
8.3%₩10,292₩10,558₩10,866₩11,226₩11,652

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩31B
Enterprise value
−₩5.2B
P/E
28.9×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,300₩4,595₩7,180₩7,830₩8,930
Market cap₩47B₩51B₩79B₩86B₩98B
P/E7.3×16.9×—7.3×10.9×
P/B0.6×0.6×1.0×1.0×1.3×
P/S0.8×0.7×1.0×1.1×1.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.2%3.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korean Drug28.9×0.4×0.5×—6.3%
Samsung Biologics31.9×7.6×13.9×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen79.4×28.6×60.3×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals15.2×6.0×7.1×—0.0%
Yuhan23.2×2.3×2.4×30.2×0.8%
HLB—15.4×54.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.8×11.4×30.2×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korean Drug / 고려제약 / 014570 / KRX:014570

Source: KRX statistical information