HL D&I HallaHL D&I
014790 · KOSPI · ₩014790 · HL D&I
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩43,192
vs the current price (₩2,320)
- Enterprise value
- ₩2.2T
- Equity value
- ₩1.6T
- WACC
- 4.5%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 1,762% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩2,320, the model needs an operating margin of 1.7% every year (it uses 4.2%).
- Today's P/E is 4.4× against a typical 4.4× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩2,062
- −11.1%
- Base
- ₩43,192
- +1,761.7%
- Bull
- ₩159,644
- +6,781.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.2%).
Revenue growth
- 5.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 21.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.37, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.8T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩614B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩71B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩19M
- Shares
- 37,858,601
- Share price
- ₩2,320
- Market cap
- ₩88B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.6T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T | ₩2.1T | ₩2.2T | ₩2.3T |
| Growth | 6.8% | 0.4% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩51B | ₩58B | ₩80B | ₩82B | ₩86B | ₩90B | ₩93B | ₩96B |
| EBIT margin | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩37B | ₩42B | ₩58B | ₩59B | ₩62B | ₩65B | ₩67B | ₩69B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B |
| − Capital spending | ₩2.3B | ₩758M | ₩3.2B | ₩1.9B | ₩2B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B |
| − Working capital | ₩6B | ₩142B | −₩69B | ₩23B | ₩21B | ₩19B | ₩17B | ₩14B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩36B | ₩41B | ₩46B | ₩50B | ₩55B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.957 | 0.916 | 0.877 | 0.840 | 0.804 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩35B | ₩38B | ₩40B | ₩42B | ₩44B |
Terminal value ₩2.5T, worth ₩2T today: 91% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩15,430 a share)Now 0.15× | ₩2,5850.17× | ₩3,1550.20× | ₩7,3410.48× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩531 a share)Now 4.37× | ₩8971.69× | ₩2,3204.37× | ₩4,2037.91× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,115 a share)Now 2.08× | ₩1,8811.69× | ₩4,8674.37× | ₩8,8187.91× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | ₩49,874 | ₩62,393 | ₩83,434 | ₩126,276 | — |
| 4.0% | ₩38,705 | ₩46,477 | ₩58,183 | ₩77,856 | ₩117,910 |
| 4.5% | ₩30,767 | ₩35,940 | ₩43,192 | ₩54,112 | ₩72,463 |
| 5.0% | ₩24,839 | ₩28,451 | ₩33,266 | ₩40,014 | ₩50,175 |
| 5.5% | ₩20,244 | ₩22,857 | ₩26,210 | ₩30,678 | ₩36,940 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩88B
- Enterprise value
- ₩702B
- P/E
- 4.4×
- P/B
- 0.2×
- P/S
- 0.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩2,700 | ₩2,215 | ₩2,055 | ₩2,680 | ₩5,400 |
| Market cap | ₩102B | ₩84B | ₩78B | ₩101B | ₩204B |
| P/E | 6.7× | 3.9× | 2.5× | 4.0× | 2.1× |
| P/B | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.5× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.0× | 0.1× | 0.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HL D&I Halla | 4.4× | 0.2× | 0.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction | 23.7× | 1.1× | 0.4× | — | 0.8% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction | — | 1.5× | 0.8× | — | 0.0% |
| GS Engineering & Construction | 19.7× | 0.5× | 0.2× | — | 1.7% |
| DL E&C | 3.6× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 1.5% |
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering | 14.4× | 1.4× | 1.2× | 8.1× | 0.0% |
| Ipark Hyundai Development | 8.8× | 0.5× | 0.4× | — | 2.9% |
| Similar companies (median) | 14.4× | 0.8× | 0.4× | 8.1× | 1.2% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HL D&I Halla / HL D&I / 014790 / KRX:014790
Source: KRX statistical information