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Dongwon Systems

014820 · KOSPI · ₩014820 · 동원시스템즈

₩21,150▲ ₩50 (0.24%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩30,232

vs the current price (₩21,150)

Enterprise value
₩1.1T
Equity value
₩884B
WACC
6.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 43% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩21,150, the model needs an operating margin of 5.0% every year (it uses 6.2%).
  • Or revenue growth −7.5 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 9.8× against a typical 15.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩8,830
−58.2%
Base
₩30,232
+42.9%
Bull
₩71,956
+240.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 7.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 16.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.16, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.4T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩286B
+ Stakes and investments
₩72B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩575M
Shares
29,255,393
incl. 264,111 preferred
Share price
₩21,150
Market cap
₩617B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.4T₩1.5T
Growth−11.2%4.5%2.9%−1.5%−0.4%0.7%1.9%3.0%
EBIT₩81B₩92B₩66B₩86B₩86B₩86B₩88B₩91B
EBIT margin6.3%6.9%4.8%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%6.2%
After-tax EBIT₩59B₩67B₩48B₩62B₩62B₩63B₩64B₩66B
+ Depreciation₩71B₩81B₩83B₩82B₩82B₩82B₩84B₩86B
− Capital spending₩143B₩77B₩69B₩101B₩101B₩102B₩104B₩107B
− Working capital−₩95B₩30B₩8.2B−₩3.6B−₩933M₩1.6B₩4.4B₩7.2B
Free cash flow₩81B₩41B₩54B₩47B₩44B₩41B₩39B₩38B
Discount factor———0.9410.8860.8340.7840.738
Present value———₩44B₩39B₩35B₩31B₩28B

Terminal value ₩1.2T, worth ₩923B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩31,052 a share)Now 0.68×₩26,2920.85×₩46,2821.49×₩80,7072.60×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,163 a share)Now 9.78×₩23,44210.8×₩33,12315.3×₩67,57031.2×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,711 a share)Now 7.80×₩29,39110.8×₩41,53015.3×₩84,71931.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.3%₩33,137₩37,013₩42,070₩48,949₩58,859
5.8%₩28,734₩31,662₩35,361₩40,186₩46,748
6.3%₩25,173₩27,440₩30,232₩33,759₩38,358
6.8%₩22,235₩24,025₩26,185₩28,845₩32,205
7.3%₩19,770₩21,206₩22,911₩24,967₩27,499

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩613B
Enterprise value
₩892B
P/E
9.7×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
5.7×
Dividend yield
2.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩25,050₩40,300₩34,500₩40,600₩51,200
Market cap₩726B₩1.2T₩1T₩1.2T₩1.5T
P/E13.5×16.1×15.6×16.3×37.2×
P/B0.8×1.4×1.3×1.6×2.2×
P/S0.5×0.9×0.8×0.8×1.2×
EV/EBITDA6.8×8.7×8.3×9.5×12.4×
Dividend yield2.4%1.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Dongwon Systems9.7×0.7×0.4×5.7×2.8%
Hankook Tire & Technology5.8×0.5×0.3×—4.0%
Kumho Tire3.1×0.6×0.3×—0.0%
Pum-Tech Korea19.5×2.5×2.1×—0.7%
Nexen Tire3.7×0.3×0.2×—3.4%
PI Advanced Materials12.0×1.2×1.6×4.8×2.4%
Nexen2.8×0.2×0.1×—2.9%
Similar companies (median)4.8×0.6×0.3×4.8×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Dongwon Systems / 동원시스템즈 / 014820 / KRX:014820

Source: KRX statistical information