Oriental Precision & Engineering오리엔탈정공
014940 · KOSDAQ · ₩014940 · 오리엔탈정공
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩8,525
vs the current price (₩3,670)
- Enterprise value
- ₩358B
- Equity value
- ₩389B
- WACC
- 8.1%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 132% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩3,670, the model needs an operating margin of 3.8% every year (it uses 9.7%).
- Or revenue growth −20.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Today's P/E is 11.5× against a typical 14.9× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩5,347
- +45.7%
- Base
- ₩8,525
- +132.3%
- Bull
- ₩13,611
- +270.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.7%).
Revenue growth
- 16.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 13%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 9.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (16.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 9.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.74
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.61, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩221B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩27B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩2.9B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 45,573,661
- Share price
- ₩3,670
- Market cap
- ₩167B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩158B | ₩207B | ₩207B | ₩257B | ₩290B | ₩319B | ₩339B | ₩349B |
| Growth | 19.7% | 31.6% | −0.0% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩13B | ₩25B | ₩24B | ₩25B | ₩28B | ₩31B | ₩33B | ₩34B |
| EBIT margin | 8.1% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩9.3B | ₩18B | ₩18B | ₩18B | ₩20B | ₩22B | ₩24B | ₩25B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩5.7B | ₩6.4B | ₩7B | ₩7.5B | ₩7.7B |
| − Capital spending | ₩1.9B | ₩5.5B | ₩9.1B | ₩6.9B | ₩7.8B | ₩8.6B | ₩9.1B | ₩9.4B |
| − Working capital | ₩11B | −₩1.9B | −₩6.5B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.7B | −₩1.4B | −₩1B | −₩508M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩19B | ₩21B | ₩22B | ₩23B | ₩23B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.925 | 0.856 | 0.792 | 0.732 | 0.677 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩18B | ₩17B | ₩16B |
Terminal value ₩403B, worth ₩273B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,039 a share)Now 1.21× | ₩4,3161.42× | ₩5,8091.91× | ₩8,8922.93× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩319 a share)Now 11.5× | ₩3,40810.7× | ₩4,76114.9× | ₩6,47320.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | ₩8,756 | ₩9,365 | ₩10,093 | ₩10,979 | ₩12,082 |
| 7.6% | ₩8,131 | ₩8,640 | ₩9,239 | ₩9,956 | ₩10,829 |
| 8.1% | ₩7,595 | ₩8,025 | ₩8,525 | ₩9,116 | ₩9,822 |
| 8.6% | ₩7,129 | ₩7,496 | ₩7,920 | ₩8,413 | ₩8,995 |
| 9.1% | ₩6,720 | ₩7,038 | ₩7,400 | ₩7,818 | ₩8,304 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩167B
- Enterprise value
- ₩140B
- P/E
- 11.5×
- P/B
- 1.2×
- P/S
- 0.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩7,710 | ₩5,210 | ₩2,855 | ₩2,295 | ₩3,675 |
| Market cap | ₩351B | ₩237B | ₩130B | ₩105B | ₩167B |
| P/E | 18.4× | 9.1× | 14.6× | 12.5× | 36.7× |
| P/B | 2.8× | 2.2× | 1.5× | 1.2× | 2.2× |
| P/S | 1.7× | 1.1× | 0.8× | 0.8× | 1.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 1.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oriental Precision & Engineering | 11.5× | 1.2× | 0.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Enerbility | 208.4× | 4.6× | 2.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 82.2× | 24.4× | 33.1× | 74.0× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,121.0× | 13.7× | 36.0× | 2,158.2× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,006.5× | 51.3× | 151.2× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 44.8× | 6.5× | 10.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Bobcat | 13,664.7× | 914.4× | 736.1× | — | 3.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 664.7× | 19.1× | 34.5× | 1,116.1× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Oriental Precision & Engineering / 오리엔탈정공 / 014940 / KRX:014940
Source: KRX statistical information