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Daechang Forging

015230 · KOSPI · ₩015230 · 대창단조

₩6,050▲ ₩70 (1.17%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩16,044

vs the current price (₩6,050)

Enterprise value
₩387B
Equity value
₩435B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 165% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩6,050, the model needs an operating margin of 4.8% every year (it uses 11.1%).
  • Today's P/E is 4.2× against a typical 5.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩10,419
+72.2%
Base
₩16,044
+165.2%
Bull
₩25,880
+327.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.1%).

Revenue growth

  • -6.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 11.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 5.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩374B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩39B
+ Stakes and investments
₩8.7B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
27,143,620
Share price
₩6,050
Market cap
₩164B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩372B₩322B₩346B₩351B₩337B₩331B₩333B₩343B
Growth−11.7%−13.4%7.5%−6.3%−4.0%−1.7%0.7%3.0%
EBIT₩46B₩30B₩38B₩39B₩37B₩37B₩37B₩38B
EBIT margin12.5%9.3%11.0%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%11.1%
After-tax EBIT₩34B₩22B₩28B₩28B₩27B₩27B₩27B₩28B
+ Depreciation₩6.7B₩6.7B₩6B₩6.7B₩6.4B₩6.3B₩6.3B₩6.5B
− Capital spending₩25B₩8.8B₩28B₩21B₩20B₩20B₩20B₩20B
− Working capital₩17B₩14B₩9.8B−₩9.4B−₩5.6B−₩2.3B₩927M₩4B
Free cash flow−₩1.3B₩6.2B−₩4.7B₩24B₩19B₩16B₩13B₩9.9B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩22B₩17B₩13B₩9.4B₩6.9B

Terminal value ₩457B, worth ₩320B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩12,820 a share)Now 0.47×₩6,1430.48×₩7,4040.58×₩10,2610.80×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,447 a share)Now 4.18×₩6,0504.18×₩7,2154.99×₩8,8126.09×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,861 a share)Now 3.25×₩7,7814.18×₩9,2794.99×₩11,3336.09×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩17,238₩18,241₩19,467₩21,002₩22,982
6.9%₩15,842₩16,632₩17,579₩18,738₩20,188
7.4%₩14,666₩15,299₩16,044₩16,938₩18,031
7.9%₩13,664₩14,176₩14,772₩15,474₩16,317
8.4%₩12,799₩13,218₩13,700₩14,261₩14,922

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩164B
Enterprise value
₩121B
P/E
4.2×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
2.4×
Dividend yield
3.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,310₩4,980₩6,100₩8,090₩3,950
Market cap₩171B₩135B₩166B₩220B₩107B
P/E5.9×4.0×4.9×6.0×4.0×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.6×0.9×0.5×
P/S0.5×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.3×
EV/EBITDA3.2×2.7×2.7×3.5×2.6×
Dividend yield2.9%3.2%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Daechang Forging4.2×0.5×0.4×2.4×3.0%
Hyundai Mobis8.7×0.6×0.5×—1.8%
SL6.1×0.9×0.4×3.7×0.0%
HL Mando10.7×0.6×0.2×—1.9%
Samhyun—13.4×18.9×—0.0%
Hyundai WIA19.3×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
SNT Dynamics13.4×0.7×0.9×—6.8%
Similar companies (median)10.7×0.7×0.5×3.7×1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Daechang Forging / 대창단조 / 015230 / KRX:015230

Source: KRX statistical information