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KG Dongbusteel

016380 · KOSPI · ₩016380 · KG스틸

₩5,120 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩32,093

vs the current price (₩5,120)

Enterprise value
₩3.6T
Equity value
₩3.2T
WACC
5.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 527% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩5,120, the model needs an operating margin of 2.3% every year (it uses 7.0%).
  • 56% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 2.8× against a typical 3.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩13,605
+165.7%
Base
₩32,093
+526.8%
Bull
₩70,899
+1,284.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 20.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩3.3T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩619B
+ Stakes and investments
₩184B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
100,008,897
Share price
₩5,120
Market cap
₩512B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩3.4T₩3.3T₩3.2T₩3.1T₩3T₩2.9T₩3T₩3T
Growth−10.2%−3.8%−3.3%−5.8%−3.6%−1.4%0.8%3.0%
EBIT₩280B₩206B₩151B₩216B₩208B₩205B₩207B₩213B
EBIT margin8.2%6.2%4.7%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%
After-tax EBIT₩203B₩149B₩109B₩157B₩151B₩149B₩150B₩155B
+ Depreciation———₩46B₩45B₩44B₩44B₩46B
− Capital spending₩47B₩70B₩63B₩56B₩54B₩53B₩53B₩55B
− Working capital₩105B₩89B−₩269B−₩39B−₩23B−₩8.6B₩4.8B₩18B
Free cash flow———₩187B₩165B₩149B₩136B₩127B
Discount factor———0.9470.8970.8500.8050.762
Present value———₩177B₩148B₩126B₩110B₩97B

Terminal value ₩3.9T, worth ₩3T today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩21,642 a share)Now 0.24×₩5,6910.26×₩8,1520.38×₩21,1030.98×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,857 a share)Now 2.76×₩3,0331.63×₩6,5173.51×₩9,6635.20×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,737 a share)Now 1.37×₩6,1041.63×₩13,1173.51×₩19,4475.20×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.6%₩34,829₩39,453₩45,860₩55,336₩70,794
5.1%₩30,097₩33,440₩37,860₩43,984₩53,041
5.6%₩26,399₩28,900₩32,093₩36,316₩42,165
6.1%₩23,428₩25,351₩27,739₩30,787₩34,818
6.6%₩20,990₩22,499₩24,333₩26,612₩29,520

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩512B
Enterprise value
₩1.1T
P/E
2.8×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
5.9%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,350₩5,530₩8,900₩7,390₩10,600
Market cap₩535B₩553B₩890B₩739B₩1.1T
P/E4.0×4.1×3.8×1.4×5.6×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.5×0.4×0.9×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.3×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.6%4.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
KG Dongbusteel2.8×0.2×0.2×—5.9%
POSCO Holdings16.6×0.4×0.3×7.8×3.5%
Korea Zinc18.9×1.6×0.9×—2.2%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.3×0.7×0.3×6.0×2.8%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.6×0.6×0.3×9.6×3.8%
Sama Aluminium—4.3×3.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.6×0.6×0.3×7.8×2.5%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: KG Dongbusteel / KG스틸 / 016380 / KRX:016380

Source: KRX statistical information