Whanin Pharm환인제약
016580 · KOSPI · ₩016580 · 환인제약
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩27,719
vs the current price (₩10,140)
- Enterprise value
- ₩398B
- Equity value
- ₩516B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 173% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩10,140, the model needs an operating margin of 3.8% every year (it uses 11.1%).
- Margins ranged from 5.1% to 17.6% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- Today's P/E is 9.2× against a typical 11.5× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩19,042
- +87.8%
- Base
- ₩27,719
- +173.4%
- Bull
- ₩42,684
- +321.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.1%).
Revenue growth
- 8.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 11.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.04, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩273B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩63B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩54B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 18,600,070
- Share price
- ₩10,140
- Market cap
- ₩189B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩230B | ₩260B | ₩255B | ₩297B | ₩319B | ₩337B | ₩352B | ₩363B |
| Growth | 15.8% | 12.7% | −1.7% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩30B | ₩21B | ₩13B | ₩33B | ₩35B | ₩37B | ₩39B | ₩40B |
| EBIT margin | 13.1% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩22B | ₩16B | ₩9.4B | ₩24B | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| + Depreciation | ₩5.5B | ₩7B | ₩8.2B | ₩8.3B | ₩8.9B | ₩9.4B | ₩9.9B | ₩10B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩15B |
| − Working capital | −₩3.5B | ₩2.7B | −₩6.7B | ₩9.5B | ₩8.6B | ₩7.4B | ₩5.9B | ₩4.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩11B | ₩13B | ₩16B | ₩18B | ₩21B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩10B | ₩11B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B |
Terminal value ₩479B, worth ₩335B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩22,875 a share)Now 0.44× | ₩10,4430.46× | ₩16,9850.74× | ₩22,8181.00× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,100 a share)Now 9.22× | ₩9,3288.48× | ₩12,63211.5× | ₩15,45014.1× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩1,395 a share)Now 7.27× | ₩11,8388.48× | ₩16,03111.5× | ₩19,60714.1× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩29,572 | ₩31,112 | ₩32,996 | ₩35,359 | ₩38,412 |
| 6.9% | ₩27,420 | ₩28,631 | ₩30,085 | ₩31,865 | ₩34,095 |
| 7.4% | ₩25,608 | ₩26,576 | ₩27,719 | ₩29,090 | ₩30,768 |
| 7.9% | ₩24,063 | ₩24,846 | ₩25,758 | ₩26,834 | ₩28,125 |
| 8.4% | ₩22,731 | ₩23,371 | ₩24,107 | ₩24,964 | ₩25,976 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩189B
- Enterprise value
- ₩125B
- P/E
- 9.2×
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.1×
- Dividend yield
- 3.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩11,320 | ₩11,810 | ₩15,040 | ₩17,600 | ₩17,800 |
| Market cap | ₩211B | ₩220B | ₩280B | ₩327B | ₩331B |
| P/E | 15.5× | 9.4× | 9.4× | 13.7× | 12.4× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.6× | 0.8× | 1.0× | 1.0× |
| P/S | 0.8× | 0.8× | 1.2× | 1.6× | 1.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0× | 6.2× | 6.2× | 8.4× | 7.2× |
| Dividend yield | 2.7% | 2.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whanin Pharm | 9.2× | 0.4× | 0.7× | 4.1× | 3.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Whanin Pharm / 환인제약 / 016580 / KRX:016580
Source: KRX statistical information