Shindaeyang Paper

016590 · KOSPI · ₩016590 · 신대양제지

₩8,130▲ ₩30 (0.37%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩8,922

vs the current price (₩8,130)

Enterprise value
₩380B
Equity value
₩360B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,720
−54.2%
Base
₩8,922
+9.7%
Bull
₩18,311
+125.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.9%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 5.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 6.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 22.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩653B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩96B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩120B
Shares
40,297,820
Share price
₩8,130
Market cap
₩328B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩645B₩659B₩640B₩640B₩636B₩640B₩652B₩671B
Growth−4.6%2.0%−2.9%−1.9%−0.6%0.6%1.8%3.0%
EBIT₩59B₩29B₩22B₩38B₩38B₩38B₩38B₩40B
EBIT margin9.1%4.4%3.5%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%
After-tax EBIT₩42B₩21B₩16B₩27B₩27B₩27B₩28B₩29B
+ Depreciation———₩31B₩31B₩31B₩32B₩33B
− Capital spending₩24B₩46B₩49B₩39B₩39B₩39B₩40B₩41B
− Working capital₩13B−₩109B−₩52B−₩2.8B−₩880M₩874M₩2.6B₩4.5B
Free cash flow———₩23B₩20B₩19B₩17B₩16B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩21B₩18B₩15B₩13B₩11B

Terminal value ₩430B, worth ₩302B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩15,319 a share)Now 0.53×₩5,9270.39×₩9,5990.63×₩12,8660.84×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩812 a share)Now 10.0×₩3,7174.58×₩5,8437.20×₩14,84118.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,317 a share)Now 6.17×₩6,0314.58×₩9,4807.20×₩24,07818.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩9,789₩10,401₩11,153₩12,099₩13,326
6.8%₩8,872₩9,348₩9,921₩10,623₩11,507
7.3%₩8,102₩8,478₩8,922₩9,456₩10,110
7.8%₩7,446₩7,746₩8,095₩8,508₩9,005
8.3%₩6,880₩7,122₩7,401₩7,725₩8,108

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩328B
Enterprise value
₩228B
P/E
10.0×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.8%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩13,110₩5,730₩5,620₩8,600₩8,570
Market cap₩528B₩231B₩226B₩347B₩345B
P/E23.2×6.6×4.7×7.3×6.4×
P/B0.9×0.4×0.4×0.6×0.7×
P/S0.8×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.7%3.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Shindaeyang Paper10.0×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.3×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.4×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Hansol Paper7.4×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.5%
Moorim P&P—0.2×0.1×—8.0%
Similar companies (median)7.4×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shindaeyang Paper / 신대양제지 / 016590 / KRX:016590

Source: KRX statistical information