Shindaeyang Paper신대양제지
016590 · KOSPI · ₩016590 · 신대양제지
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩8,922
vs the current price (₩8,130)
- Enterprise value
- ₩380B
- Equity value
- ₩360B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩3,720
- −54.2%
- Base
- ₩8,922
- +9.7%
- Bull
- ₩18,311
- +125.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.9%).
Revenue growth
- -1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 5.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 6.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 22.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩653B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩96B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩3B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩120B
- Shares
- 40,297,820
- Share price
- ₩8,130
- Market cap
- ₩328B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩645B | ₩659B | ₩640B | ₩640B | ₩636B | ₩640B | ₩652B | ₩671B |
| Growth | −4.6% | 2.0% | −2.9% | −1.9% | −0.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩59B | ₩29B | ₩22B | ₩38B | ₩38B | ₩38B | ₩38B | ₩40B |
| EBIT margin | 9.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩42B | ₩21B | ₩16B | ₩27B | ₩27B | ₩27B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩31B | ₩32B | ₩33B |
| − Capital spending | ₩24B | ₩46B | ₩49B | ₩39B | ₩39B | ₩39B | ₩40B | ₩41B |
| − Working capital | ₩13B | −₩109B | −₩52B | −₩2.8B | −₩880M | ₩874M | ₩2.6B | ₩4.5B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩23B | ₩20B | ₩19B | ₩17B | ₩16B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩21B | ₩18B | ₩15B | ₩13B | ₩11B |
Terminal value ₩430B, worth ₩302B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩15,319 a share)Now 0.53× | ₩5,9270.39× | ₩9,5990.63× | ₩12,8660.84× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩812 a share)Now 10.0× | ₩3,7174.58× | ₩5,8437.20× | ₩14,84118.3× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,317 a share)Now 6.17× | ₩6,0314.58× | ₩9,4807.20× | ₩24,07818.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩9,789 | ₩10,401 | ₩11,153 | ₩12,099 | ₩13,326 |
| 6.8% | ₩8,872 | ₩9,348 | ₩9,921 | ₩10,623 | ₩11,507 |
| 7.3% | ₩8,102 | ₩8,478 | ₩8,922 | ₩9,456 | ₩10,110 |
| 7.8% | ₩7,446 | ₩7,746 | ₩8,095 | ₩8,508 | ₩9,005 |
| 8.3% | ₩6,880 | ₩7,122 | ₩7,401 | ₩7,725 | ₩8,108 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩328B
- Enterprise value
- ₩228B
- P/E
- 10.0×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 2.8%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩13,110 | ₩5,730 | ₩5,620 | ₩8,600 | ₩8,570 |
| Market cap | ₩528B | ₩231B | ₩226B | ₩347B | ₩345B |
| P/E | 23.2× | 6.6× | 4.7× | 7.3× | 6.4× |
| P/B | 0.9× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.6× | 0.7× |
| P/S | 0.8× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 3.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shindaeyang Paper | 10.0× | 0.5× | 0.5× | — | 2.8% |
| SM Kukil | — | 3.2× | 6.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Dongwha Enterprise | — | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Asia Paper Manufacturing | 10.4× | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 2.8% |
| Hansol Paper | 7.4× | 0.2× | 0.1× | — | 7.3% |
| Sambo Corrugated Board | 4.5× | 0.2× | 0.2× | — | 2.5% |
| Moorim P&P | — | 0.2× | 0.1× | — | 8.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 7.4× | 0.3× | 0.3× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Shindaeyang Paper / 신대양제지 / 016590 / KRX:016590
Source: KRX statistical information