Hyundai Feed

016790 · KOSDAQ · ₩016790 · 현대사료

₩994 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩158

vs the current price (₩994)

Enterprise value
₩22B
Equity value
₩30B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 84% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩994, the model needs an operating margin of 14.6% every year (it uses 2.0%).

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩51
−94.9%
Base
₩158
−84.1%
Bull
₩365
−63.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 23.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩118B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩7.5B
+ Stakes and investments
₩315M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩100,000
Shares
188,471,729
Share price
₩994
Market cap
₩187B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩161B₩128B₩113B₩106B₩99B₩95B₩95B₩98B
Growth1.6%−20.0%−12.0%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩1.4B₩2.7B₩5B₩2.1B₩2B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩2B
EBIT margin0.9%2.1%4.4%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
After-tax EBIT₩1B₩1.9B₩3.6B₩1.5B₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.4B
+ Depreciation———₩530M₩494M₩477M₩476M₩490M
− Capital spending₩454M₩581M₩1.3B₩636M₩593M₩572M₩571M₩588M
− Working capital−₩35B₩27B−₩242M−₩2.8B−₩1.7B−₩827M−₩46M₩683M
Free cash flow———₩4.2B₩3B₩2.1B₩1.3B₩641M
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩4B₩2.6B₩1.7B₩1B₩451M

Terminal value ₩17B, worth ₩12B today: 56% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩399 a share)Now 2.49×₩9152.29×₩1,0662.67×₩25,21463.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩179₩178₩178₩177₩176
6.8%₩169₩168₩167₩165₩163
7.3%₩161₩160₩158₩156₩153
7.8%₩154₩152₩150₩148₩145
8.3%₩148₩146₩144₩141₩138

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩187B
Enterprise value
₩179B
P/E
94.6×
P/B
2.5×
P/S
1.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩994₩994₩5,150₩4,135₩1,075
Market cap₩187B₩187B₩971B₩779B₩203B
P/E42.7×6.6×———
P/B2.4×2.1×—42.6×3.5×
P/S1.7×1.5×6.0×4.9×1.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hyundai Feed94.6×2.5×1.6×—0.0%
Samyang Foods17.6×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.6×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.6×—1.5%
Otoki17.3×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.2×0.9×0.4×6.4×4.5%
Similar companies (median)17.3×0.9×0.5×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai Feed / 현대사료 / 016790 / KRX:016790

Source: KRX statistical information