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Cas

016920 · KOSDAQ · ₩016920 · 카스

₩1,028▲ ₩2 (0.19%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩46

vs the current price (₩1,028)

Enterprise value
₩53B
Equity value
₩1.2B
WACC
5.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 96% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,028, the model needs an operating margin of 3.2% every year (it uses 2.5%).
  • Or revenue growth +19.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩46
−95.5%
Bull
₩5,867
+470.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 23.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩161B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩52B
+ Stakes and investments
₩5.5M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
25,698,732
Share price
₩1,028
Market cap
₩26B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩156B₩156B₩161B₩158B₩158B₩159B₩162B₩167B
Growth−7.3%−0.0%3.2%−1.5%−0.3%0.8%1.9%3.0%
EBIT₩5B₩3.6B₩2B₩4B₩3.9B₩4B₩4.1B₩4.2B
EBIT margin3.2%2.3%1.3%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
After-tax EBIT₩3.6B₩2.6B₩1.5B₩2.9B₩2.9B₩2.9B₩2.9B₩3B
+ Depreciation———₩3.8B₩3.8B₩3.8B₩3.9B₩4B
− Capital spending₩6B₩6.5B₩1.9B₩4.9B₩4.9B₩4.9B₩5B₩5.2B
− Working capital−₩2.2B₩2.4B−₩1.1B−₩559M−₩110M₩293M₩701M₩1.1B
Free cash flow———₩2.3B₩1.9B₩1.5B₩1.1B₩729M
Discount factor———0.9510.9040.8600.8170.777
Present value———₩2.2B₩1.7B₩1.3B₩900M₩566M

Terminal value ₩59B, worth ₩46B today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,828 a share)Now 0.36×₩1,0610.38×₩1,7300.61×₩4,1541.47×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩193 a share)Now 5.31×₩1,1976.19×₩3,75219.4×₩7,06036.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.2%₩512₩714₩1,007₩1,470₩2,323
4.7%₩156₩275₩436₩669₩1,038
5.2%——₩46₩168₩344
5.7%—————
6.2%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩26B
Enterprise value
₩77B
P/E
—
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
1.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,078₩2,130₩1,503₩1,650₩5,160
Market cap₩28B₩55B₩39B₩42B₩133B
P/E—41.8×22.3×15.5×—
P/B0.4×0.8×0.6×0.7×2.7×
P/S0.2×0.4×0.2×0.3×0.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.9%0.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Cas—0.4×0.2×—1.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.6×1.3×0.3×—3.7%
ISC45.3×6.0×12.6×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies18.9×1.6×5.1×—4.2%
Shinsegae14.4×0.5×0.3×—2.0%
Similar companies (median)16.6×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Cas / 카스 / 016920 / KRX:016920

Source: KRX statistical information