Shinwon Construction

017000 · KOSDAQ · ₩017000 · 신원종합개발

₩2,140▲ ₩70 (3.38%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩8,663

vs the current price (₩2,140)

Enterprise value
₩80B
Equity value
₩101B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 305% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,140, the model needs an operating margin of 1.3% every year (it uses 3.5%).
  • Today's P/E is 3.1× against a typical 5.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,179
+48.5%
Base
₩8,663
+304.8%
Bull
₩19,091
+792.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.5%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 35.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.29, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩235B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩13B
+ Stakes and investments
₩7.8B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
11,668,027
Share price
₩2,140
Market cap
₩25B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩310B₩260B₩211B₩245B₩254B₩263B₩271B₩279B
Growth64.6%−16.1%−18.7%3.9%3.7%3.5%3.2%3.0%
EBIT₩3.1B₩15B₩8.6B₩8.6B₩8.9B₩9.2B₩9.5B₩9.8B
EBIT margin1.0%5.8%4.1%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%
After-tax EBIT₩2.3B₩11B₩6.2B₩6.2B₩6.4B₩6.7B₩6.9B₩7.1B
+ Depreciation———₩1.2B₩1.3B₩1.3B₩1.4B₩1.4B
− Capital spending₩5.5B₩47M₩34M₩1.5B₩1.5B₩1.6B₩1.6B₩1.7B
− Working capital−₩2.4B₩1.3B₩11B₩3.3B₩3.2B₩3.1B₩3B₩2.9B
Free cash flow———₩2.7B₩3B₩3.3B₩3.6B₩3.9B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩2.5B₩2.6B₩2.6B₩2.7B₩2.8B

Terminal value ₩95B, worth ₩67B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,225 a share)Now 0.21×₩2,7000.26×₩3,5590.35×₩12,1351.19×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩688 a share)Now 3.11×₩2,5113.65×₩3,8765.64×₩11,22516.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩614 a share)Now 3.48×₩2,2423.65×₩3,4615.64×₩10,02316.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩10,099₩10,224₩10,370₩10,546₩10,767
6.8%₩9,315₩9,369₩9,427₩9,492₩9,566
7.3%₩8,657₩8,662₩8,663₩8,658₩8,644
7.8%₩8,097₩8,069₩8,032₩7,981₩7,914
8.3%₩7,615₩7,564₩7,501₩7,422₩7,322

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩25B
Enterprise value
₩11B
P/E
3.1×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,225₩2,800₩3,550₩4,340₩11,750
Market cap₩38B₩33B₩41B₩51B₩137B
P/E7.7×5.9×5.0×11.4×37.1×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×1.5×
P/S0.2×0.1×0.1×0.3×1.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Shinwon Construction3.1×0.2×0.1×—0.0%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction22.7×1.1×0.4×—0.9%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction—1.3×0.6×—0.0%
GS Engineering & Construction19.3×0.5×0.2×—1.7%
DL E&C3.6×0.4×0.3×—1.5%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering14.4×1.4×1.2×8.1×0.0%
Ipark Hyundai Development8.9×0.5×0.4×—2.8%
Similar companies (median)14.4×0.8×0.4×8.1×1.2%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Shinwon Construction / 신원종합개발 / 017000 / KRX:017000

Source: KRX statistical information