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Seoul City Gas

017390 · KOSPI · ₩017390 · 서울가스

₩51,700▲ ₩800 (1.57%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩322B
Equity value
−₩341B
WACC
7.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩51,700, the model needs an operating margin of 2.3% every year (it uses 0.0%).
  • 68% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • Today's P/E is 11.4× against a typical 10.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩41,856
−19.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 2.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 31.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.8T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩20B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩3.1B
Shares
4,950,000
Share price
₩51,700
Market cap
₩256B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.7T₩1.7T₩1.8T₩1.8T₩1.9T₩1.9T₩2T₩2T
Growth−0.4%−0.8%7.3%2.0%2.2%2.5%2.7%3.0%
EBIT−₩3.2B−₩10B₩17B₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
EBIT margin−0.2%−0.6%1.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩2.3B−₩7.5B₩13B₩0₩0₩0₩0₩0
+ Depreciation₩31B——₩33B₩33B₩34B₩35B₩36B
− Capital spending—₩34B₩44B₩40B₩41B₩42B₩43B₩44B
− Working capital₩79B₩17B₩554M₩11B₩13B₩15B₩16B₩18B
Free cash flow———−₩18B−₩20B−₩22B−₩24B−₩27B
Discount factor———0.9340.8720.8140.7600.710
Present value———−₩17B−₩17B−₩18B−₩18B−₩19B

Terminal value −₩326B, worth −₩232B today: 72% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩230,159 a share)Now 0.22×₩53,5510.23×₩64,4820.28×₩316,8811.38×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩4,520 a share)Now 11.4×₩32,1497.11×₩49,40810.9×₩286,36463.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,016 a share)Now 25.6×₩14,3447.11×₩22,04410.9×₩127,76863.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.1%—————
6.6%—————
7.1%—————
7.6%—————
8.1%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩256B
Enterprise value
₩228B
P/E
11.4×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩62,700₩49,800₩61,800₩425,000₩167,500
Market cap₩310B₩247B₩306B₩2.1T₩829B
P/E10.0×7.3×14.9×117.4×97.1×
P/B0.3×0.2×0.3×2.0×0.8×
P/S0.2×0.1×0.2×1.2×0.6×
EV/EBITDA——10.3×60.8×30.7×
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Seoul City Gas11.4×0.2×0.1×—0.0%
Korea Electric Power2.3×0.4×0.2×5.7×5.5%
Korea Gas5.9×0.3×0.1×8.6×3.2%
Korea District Heating2.3×0.3×0.2×4.8×8.6%
SGC Energy—0.7×0.2×—4.0%
Samchully3.2×0.2×0.1×—2.5%
Daesung Energy6.5×0.5×0.2×—3.6%
Similar companies (median)3.2×0.3×0.2×5.7×3.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Seoul City Gas / 서울가스 / 017390 / KRX:017390

Source: KRX statistical information