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Samhyun Steel

017480 · KOSDAQ · ₩017480 · 삼현철강

₩4,590▼ ₩25 (0.54%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩13,668

vs the current price (₩4,590)

Enterprise value
₩93B
Equity value
₩211B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 198% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,590, the model needs an operating margin of −1.7% every year (it uses 4.0%).
  • Margins ranged from 1.6% to 10.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 7.5× against a typical 7.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩10,284
+124.0%
Base
₩13,668
+197.8%
Bull
₩19,934
+334.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-13.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 25.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩230B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩114B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
15,442,890
Share price
₩4,590
Market cap
₩71B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩262B₩224B₩218B₩207B₩193B₩186B₩186B₩192B
Growth−22.9%−14.8%−2.5%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩9.7B₩3.6B₩5.1B₩8.3B₩7.7B₩7.5B₩7.4B₩7.7B
EBIT margin3.7%1.6%2.3%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
After-tax EBIT₩7.1B₩2.6B₩3.7B₩6B₩5.6B₩5.4B₩5.4B₩5.6B
+ Depreciation———₩207M₩193M₩186M₩186M₩192M
− Capital spending₩967M₩0₩160M₩207M₩193M₩186M₩186M₩192M
− Working capital−₩1.8B−₩2.3B₩1.4B−₩5.8B−₩3.5B−₩1.7B−₩94M₩1.4B
Free cash flow———₩12B₩9.1B₩7.1B₩5.5B₩4.2B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩11B₩7.9B₩5.7B₩4.1B₩2.9B

Terminal value ₩88B, worth ₩62B today: 66% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩12,897 a share)Now 0.36×₩4,5930.36×₩5,0950.40×₩6,6340.51×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩614 a share)Now 7.48×₩2,4564.00×₩4,7507.74×₩9,53815.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩793 a share)Now 5.79×₩3,1704.00×₩6,1327.74×₩12,31315.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩14,302₩14,562₩14,880₩15,278₩15,793
6.8%₩13,786₩13,980₩14,212₩14,495₩14,849
7.3%₩13,351₩13,497₩13,668₩13,873₩14,122
7.8%₩12,980₩13,090₩13,217₩13,367₩13,545
8.3%₩12,659₩12,742₩12,837₩12,946₩13,075

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩71B
Enterprise value
−₩43B
P/E
7.5×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,525₩4,475₩5,100₩4,870₩5,670
Market cap₩70B₩69B₩79B₩75B₩88B
P/E11.0×12.5×7.6×4.7×3.4×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.4×0.4×0.5×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.3×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield6.6%6.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samhyun Steel7.5×0.4×0.3×—6.5%
POSCO Holdings16.1×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.7%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.1×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings11.5×0.5×0.3×9.2×4.2%
Sama Aluminium—4.0×2.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samhyun Steel / 삼현철강 / 017480 / KRX:017480

Source: KRX statistical information