Pulmuone Corporate풀무원
017810 · KOSPI · ₩017810 · 풀무원
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩11,650
vs the current price (₩8,040)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.8T
- Equity value
- ₩444B
- WACC
- 4.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 45% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩8,040, the model needs an operating margin of 2.2% every year (it uses 2.3%).
- Or revenue growth −1.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Today's P/E is 7.0× against a typical 23.1× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩11,650
- +44.9%
- Bull
- ₩149,438
- +1,758.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.3%).
Revenue growth
- 6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 3.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩3.5T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩1.1T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩5B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩289B
- Shares
- 38,120,542
- Share price
- ₩8,040
- Market cap
- ₩306B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩3T | ₩3.2T | ₩3.4T | ₩3.7T | ₩3.9T | ₩4.1T | ₩4.2T | ₩4.3T |
| Growth | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩62B | ₩92B | ₩93B | ₩85B | ₩90B | ₩94B | ₩97B | ₩100B |
| EBIT margin | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩45B | ₩67B | ₩68B | ₩62B | ₩65B | ₩68B | ₩70B | ₩72B |
| + Depreciation | ₩138B | — | — | ₩170B | ₩179B | ₩187B | ₩194B | ₩200B |
| − Capital spending | ₩127B | ₩98B | ₩154B | ₩148B | ₩156B | ₩163B | ₩169B | ₩174B |
| − Working capital | −₩89B | ₩13B | ₩27B | ₩8.2B | ₩7.5B | ₩6.8B | ₩5.9B | ₩4.9B |
| Free cash flow | ₩144B | — | — | ₩76B | ₩81B | ₩85B | ₩90B | ₩94B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.955 | 0.912 | 0.871 | 0.832 | 0.794 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩72B | ₩74B | ₩74B | ₩75B | ₩74B |
Terminal value ₩1.8T, worth ₩1.5T today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩8,860 a share)Now 0.91× | ₩8,0400.91× | ₩11,6321.31× | ₩17,0751.93× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,148 a share)Now 7.00× | ₩15,13913.2× | ₩26,53123.1× | ₩54,63947.6× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,114 a share)Now 7.22× | ₩14,68913.2× | ₩25,74223.1× | ₩53,01447.6× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7% | ₩14,809 | ₩23,546 | ₩37,373 | ₩62,581 | ₩123,110 |
| 4.2% | ₩7,405 | ₩13,206 | ₩21,620 | ₩34,934 | ₩59,208 |
| 4.7% | ₩1,980 | ₩6,065 | ₩11,650 | ₩19,750 | ₩32,568 |
| 5.2% | — | ₩832 | ₩4,765 | ₩10,140 | ₩17,936 |
| 5.7% | — | — | — | ₩3,502 | ₩8,674 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩306B
- Enterprise value
- ₩979B
- P/E
- 7.0×
- P/B
- 0.9×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 1.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩12,940 | ₩10,700 | ₩10,490 | ₩11,200 | ₩17,300 |
| Market cap | ₩493B | ₩408B | ₩400B | ₩427B | ₩659B |
| P/E | 27.3× | 11.5× | 20.5× | — | 49.4× |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.3× | 1.3× | 1.0× | 1.4× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× | 0.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | 5.4× | 7.0× | 7.7× |
| Dividend yield | 0.8% | 1.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulmuone Corporate | 7.0× | 0.9× | 0.1× | — | 1.3% |
| Samyang Foods | 17.6× | 5.6× | 3.1× | — | 0.4% |
| Orion | 10.8× | 1.1× | 1.3× | 5.4× | 3.0% |
| CJ Cheiljedang | — | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 3.5% |
| Nongshim | 12.3× | 0.8× | 0.7× | — | 1.5% |
| Otoki | 17.4× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 2.8% |
| Hite Jinro | 23.7× | 1.0× | 0.5× | 6.4× | 4.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.4× | 0.9× | 0.6× | 5.9× | 2.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Pulmuone Corporate / 풀무원 / 017810 / KRX:017810
Source: KRX statistical information