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Korea Alcohol Industrial

017890 · KOSDAQ · ₩017890 · 한국알콜

₩16,090▲ ₩280 (1.77%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩21,939

vs the current price (₩16,090)

Enterprise value
₩328B
Equity value
₩454B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 36% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩16,090, the model needs an operating margin of 4.9% every year (it uses 7.2%).
  • Or revenue growth −14.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 8.4× against a typical 7.7× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩14,557
−9.5%
Base
₩21,939
+36.4%
Bull
₩34,997
+117.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -6.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 21.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.31, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩447B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩18B
+ Stakes and investments
₩170B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩63B
Shares
20,673,506
Share price
₩16,090
Market cap
₩333B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩438B₩421B₩424B₩420B₩404B₩397B₩400B₩412B
Growth−14.5%−3.9%0.7%−6.1%−3.9%−1.6%0.7%3.0%
EBIT₩22B₩27B₩32B₩30B₩29B₩29B₩29B₩30B
EBIT margin5.0%6.5%7.5%7.2%7.2%7.2%7.2%7.2%
After-tax EBIT₩16B₩20B₩23B₩22B₩21B₩21B₩21B₩22B
+ Depreciation₩13B₩14B—₩13B₩13B₩12B₩12B₩13B
− Capital spending———₩17B₩16B₩16B₩16B₩16B
− Working capital−₩7.8B₩9.1B₩31B−₩5.8B−₩3.5B−₩1.4B₩587M₩2.5B
Free cash flow———₩24B₩21B₩19B₩17B₩15B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩22B₩18B₩15B₩13B₩11B

Terminal value ₩355B, worth ₩250B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩27,183 a share)Now 0.59×₩10,0230.37×₩12,8280.47×₩15,7360.58×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,909 a share)Now 8.43×₩10,9365.73×₩14,6207.66×₩31,18916.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,940 a share)Now 5.47×₩16,8445.73×₩22,5197.66×₩48,04016.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩23,078₩24,188₩25,551₩27,268₩29,499
6.8%₩21,623₩22,500₩23,557₩24,856₩26,492
7.3%₩20,398₩21,103₩21,939₩22,945₩24,182
7.8%₩19,354₩19,928₩20,599₩21,394₩22,351
8.3%₩18,453₩18,926₩19,472₩20,110₩20,866

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩333B
Enterprise value
₩315B
P/E
8.4×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩10,580₩8,310₩11,590₩9,900₩11,800
Market cap₩219B₩172B₩240B₩205B₩244B
P/E7.1×7.0×23.8×6.7×5.3×
P/B0.4×0.3×0.5×0.5×0.6×
P/S0.5×0.4×0.5×0.4×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—3.0×5.1×5.2×3.8×
Dividend yield1.0%1.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Korea Alcohol Industrial8.4×0.6×0.7×—0.7%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.5×0.3×—0.0%
Hanwha5.9×0.4×0.1×—1.5%
SKC—1.8×1.7×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.9×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.3×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.3×0.4×0.4×8.9×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Alcohol Industrial / 한국알콜 / 017890 / KRX:017890

Source: KRX statistical information