Ask Warren

AUK

017900 · KOSPI · ₩017900 · 광전자

₩7,990▲ ₩780 (10.82%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,689

vs the current price (₩7,990)

Enterprise value
₩6.1B
Equity value
₩98B
WACC
8.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 79% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩7,990, the model needs an operating margin of 29.4% every year (it uses 1.5%).
  • 99% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 41.7× against a typical 15.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,404
−82.4%
Base
₩1,689
−78.9%
Bull
₩2,229
−72.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -4.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 28.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.82

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.73, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩134B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩91B
+ Stakes and investments
₩523M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩66M
Shares
57,943,763
Share price
₩7,990
Market cap
₩463B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩126B₩130B₩133B₩128B₩125B₩124B₩125B₩129B
Growth−17.4%3.6%1.9%−4.5%−2.6%−0.7%1.1%3.0%
EBIT−₩4.4B₩1.5B₩1.2B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B
EBIT margin−3.5%1.1%0.9%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%
After-tax EBIT−₩3.2B₩1.1B₩873M₩1.4B₩1.4B₩1.3B₩1.4B₩1.4B
+ Depreciation₩6.7B₩5.3B—₩6B₩5.9B₩5.8B₩5.9B₩6.1B
− Capital spending₩3.3B₩1.9B₩14B₩6.4B₩6.2B₩6.2B₩6.2B₩6.4B
− Working capital−₩56B₩972M₩16B−₩1.7B−₩947M−₩248M₩388M₩1.1B
Free cash flow₩56B₩3.5B—₩2.7B₩1.9B₩1.2B₩597M−₩55M
Discount factor———0.9210.8480.7800.7180.661
Present value———₩2.5B₩1.6B₩954M₩429M−₩36M

Terminal value ₩943M, worth ₩623M today: 10% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩4,234 a share)Now 1.89×₩1,8830.44×₩2,3770.56×₩5,2461.24×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩192 a share)Now 41.7×₩1,2786.67×₩2,88915.1×₩9,53149.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩184 a share)Now 43.3×₩1,2306.67×₩2,78115.1×₩9,17549.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.6%₩1,758₩1,729₩1,693₩1,651₩1,599
8.1%₩1,750₩1,723₩1,691₩1,653₩1,607
8.6%₩1,743₩1,718₩1,689₩1,655₩1,615
9.1%₩1,737₩1,714₩1,688₩1,657₩1,620
9.6%₩1,732₩1,710₩1,686₩1,658₩1,625

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩463B
Enterprise value
₩371B
P/E
41.7×
P/B
1.9×
P/S
3.5×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.6%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,802₩1,719₩2,090₩2,185₩3,260
Market cap₩104B₩100B₩121B₩127B₩189B
P/E24.5×9.4×—9.2×17.1×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.5×0.6×0.9×
P/S0.8×0.8×1.0×0.8×1.1×
EV/EBITDA—1.5×18.6×7.9×11.2×
Dividend yield2.8%2.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
AUK41.7×1.9×3.5×—0.6%
SK hynix6.7×4.1×5.7×—0.2%
DB HiTek12.6×1.8×2.8×—0.8%
Fadu—40.1×14.0×—0.0%
Hana Micron14.4×4.5×1.2×—0.2%
Jeju Semiconductor10.4×5.4×3.6×—0.0%
SFA Semicon—3.1×3.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)11.5×4.3×3.4×—0.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: AUK / 광전자 / 017900 / KRX:017900

Source: KRX statistical information