KOSDAQ · 018120 · Food & Beverage · ₩018120

Jinro Distillers진로발효

018120 · KOSDAQ · ₩018120 · 진로발효

₩16,460▲ ₩30 (0.18%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩25,215

vs the current price (₩16,460)

Enterprise value: ₩132B
Equity value: ₩167B
WACC: 7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 53% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩16,460, the model needs an operating margin of 6.6% every year (it uses 11.0%).
Or revenue growth −17.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Margins ranged from 3.8% to 14.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Today's P/E is 11.0× against a typical 11.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩17,701; +7.5%
Base: ₩25,215; +53.2%
Bull: ₩38,078; +131.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.0%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 10.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 20.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 31.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 42.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin11%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending2.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital33.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.03, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩98B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩37B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩2M; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩2.7B
Shares: 6,621,120
Share price: ₩16,460
Market cap: ₩109B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩100B	₩101B	₩100B	₩99B	₩99B	₩101B	₩103B	₩106B
Growth	0.5%	1.4%	−1.6%	0.1%	0.8%	1.5%	2.3%	3.0%
EBIT	₩8.1B	₩12B	₩14B	₩11B	₩11B	₩11B	₩11B	₩12B
EBIT margin	8.1%	11.4%	14.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%	11.0%
After-tax EBIT	₩5.8B	₩8.4B	₩10B	₩7.9B	₩7.9B	₩8B	₩8.2B	₩8.5B
+ Depreciation	₩2.9B	₩3B	₩3B	₩2.9B	₩2.9B	₩2.9B	₩3B	₩3.1B
− Capital spending	₩1.2B	₩3.7B	₩2B	₩2.3B	₩2.3B	₩2.3B	₩2.4B	₩2.4B
− Working capital	−₩4.4B	−₩6B	−₩2.7B	₩33M	₩261M	₩493M	₩768M	₩1B
Free cash flow	₩12B	₩14B	₩14B	₩8.4B	₩8.3B	₩8.2B	₩8.1B	₩8.1B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.931	0.867	0.808	0.752	0.700
Present value	—	—	—	₩7.8B	₩7.2B	₩6.6B	₩6.1B	₩5.7B

Terminal value ₩141B, worth ₩99B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩13,507 a share)Now 1.22×	₩17,1001.27×	₩19,4051.44×	₩33,8632.51×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,494 a share)Now 11.0×	₩14,6539.81×	₩17,26311.6×	₩51,28934.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,014 a share)Now 8.17×	₩19,7479.81×	₩23,26411.6×	₩69,11834.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.4%	₩26,645	₩27,994	₩29,647	₩31,720	₩34,400
6.9%	₩24,849	₩25,919	₩27,204	₩28,778	₩30,753
7.4%	₩23,335	₩24,196	₩25,215	₩26,438	₩27,936
7.9%	₩22,039	₩22,742	₩23,562	₩24,531	₩25,694
8.4%	₩20,919	₩21,499	₩22,168	₩22,946	₩23,867

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩109B
Enterprise value: ₩72B
P/E: 11.0×
P/B: 1.2×
P/S: 1.1×
EV/EBITDA: 4.9×
Dividend yield: 7.6%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩18,090	₩16,900	₩15,950	₩20,950	₩30,650
Market cap	₩120B	₩112B	₩106B	₩139B	₩203B
P/E	9.9×	10.9×	17.3×	42.4×	21.8×
P/B	1.3×	1.3×	1.4×	1.9×	2.6×
P/S	1.2×	1.1×	1.1×	1.4×	2.2×
EV/EBITDA	5.2×	6.1×	8.6×	20.2×	13.4×
Dividend yield	6.9%	6.5%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Jinro Distillers	11.0×	1.2×	1.1×	4.9×	7.6%
Samyang Foods	18.4×	5.9×	3.3×	—	0.4%
Orion	10.5×	1.1×	1.2×	5.3×	3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang	—	0.3×	0.1×	—	3.5%
Nongshim	12.0×	0.8×	0.7×	—	1.5%
Otoki	16.9×	0.6×	0.3×	—	2.9%
Hite Jinro	23.0×	0.9×	0.4×	6.3×	4.5%
Similar companies (median)	16.9×	0.9×	0.5×	5.8×	3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Jinro Distillers / 진로발효 / 018120 / KRX:018120

Source: KRX statistical information