KOSPI · 018470 · Steel & Materials · ₩018470

Choil Aluminum조일알미늄

018470 · KOSPI · ₩018470 · 조일알미늄

₩4,955▼ ₩25 (0.50%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩2,446

vs the current price (₩4,955)

Enterprise value: ₩217B
Equity value: ₩62B
WACC: 5.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 51% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩4,955, the model needs an operating margin of 4.1% every year (it uses 3.4%).
Or revenue growth +47.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Today's P/E is 15.6× against a typical 14.8× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: ₩2,446; −50.6%
Bull: ₩16,137; +225.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.4%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-4.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-2.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-0.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 41.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin3.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation1.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending1.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta0.76
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.65, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩537B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩157B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩1.4B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 25,326,344
Share price: ₩4,955
Market cap: ₩125B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩466B	₩498B	₩487B	₩512B	₩497B	₩493B	₩498B	₩513B
Growth	−17.2%	7.0%	−2.3%	−4.7%	−2.8%	−0.9%	1.1%	3.0%
EBIT	₩8.5B	₩20B	₩14B	₩17B	₩17B	₩17B	₩17B	₩17B
EBIT margin	1.8%	4.0%	2.8%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%	3.4%
After-tax EBIT	₩6.1B	₩15B	₩10B	₩13B	₩12B	₩12B	₩12B	₩13B
+ Depreciation	₩6.2B	₩6.5B	₩7.1B	₩7.2B	₩7B	₩6.9B	₩7B	₩7.2B
− Capital spending	₩4.2B	₩13B	₩2.4B	₩6.7B	₩6.5B	₩6.4B	₩6.5B	₩6.7B
− Working capital	₩37B	₩12B	−₩23B	−₩10B	−₩5.7B	−₩1.8B	₩2.2B	₩6B
Free cash flow	−₩29B	−₩3.4B	₩37B	₩23B	₩18B	₩14B	₩11B	₩7.2B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.944	0.891	0.841	0.794	0.750
Present value	—	—	—	₩22B	₩16B	₩12B	₩8.4B	₩5.4B

Terminal value ₩204B, worth ₩153B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩8,964 a share)Now 0.55×	₩6,7050.75×	₩11,9071.33×	₩18,0332.01×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩319 a share)Now 15.6×	₩2,7438.61×	₩4,72814.8×	₩8,57526.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
4.9%	₩4,377	₩4,631	₩4,961	₩5,414	₩6,087
5.4%	₩3,289	₩3,395	₩3,521	₩3,681	₩3,893
5.9%	₩2,422	₩2,436	₩2,446	₩2,450	₩2,446
6.4%	₩1,713	₩1,670	₩1,612	₩1,530	₩1,417
6.9%	₩1,123	₩1,044	₩945	₩816	₩646

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩125B
Enterprise value: ₩282B
P/E: 15.6×
P/B: 0.6×
P/S: 0.2×
EV/EBITDA: 8.7×
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩6,505	₩6,975	₩10,425	₩11,775	₩9,900
Market cap	₩165B	₩177B	₩264B	₩298B	₩251B
P/E	20.7×	16.1×	—	16.7×	16.0×
P/B	0.8×	0.9×	1.4×	1.6×	1.5×
P/S	0.3×	0.4×	0.6×	0.5×	0.5×
EV/EBITDA	13.6×	12.6×	28.0×	20.0×	16.1×
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Choil Aluminum	15.6×	0.6×	0.2×	8.7×	0.0%
POSCO Holdings	16.2×	0.4×	0.3×	7.7×	3.6%
Korea Zinc	18.6×	1.6×	0.9×	—	2.3%
Hyundai Steel	—	0.2×	0.2×	—	1.9%
Poongsan	8.1×	0.7×	0.3×	5.9×	2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings	12.2×	0.5×	0.3×	9.5×	4.0%
Sama Aluminium	—	4.1×	3.0×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	14.2×	0.6×	0.3×	7.7×	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Choil Aluminum / 조일알미늄 / 018470 / KRX:018470

Source: KRX statistical information