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SK Gas

018670 · KOSPI · ₩018670 · SK가스

₩249,000▼ ₩2,000 (0.80%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩359,460

vs the current price (₩249,000)

Enterprise value
₩5.5T
Equity value
₩3.3T
WACC
5.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 44% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩249,000, the model needs an operating margin of 3.8% every year (it uses 4.4%).
  • Or revenue growth −5.7 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩10T, operating profit ₩470B (4.6% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩9.6T, operating profit ₩570B (5.9% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Today's P/E is 7.2× against a typical 7.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩359,460
+44.4%
Bull
₩1,277,880
+413.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.4%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.6%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 15.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩8.9T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩2.6T
+ Stakes and investments
₩916B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩487B
Shares
9,269,244
Share price
₩249,000
Market cap
₩2.3T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩7T₩7.1T₩7.7T₩8.8T₩8.7T₩8.8T₩9T₩9.2T
Growth−13.3%1.5%8.2%−1.6%−0.5%0.7%1.8%3.0%
EBIT₩304B₩287B₩443B₩386B₩384B₩387B₩394B₩406B
EBIT margin4.3%4.0%5.8%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%4.4%
After-tax EBIT₩220B₩208B₩321B₩280B₩279B₩280B₩286B₩294B
+ Depreciation———₩404B₩402B₩404B₩412B₩424B
− Capital spending₩576B₩358B₩300B₩500B₩498B₩501B₩510B₩525B
− Working capital−₩66B−₩422B−₩53B−₩22B−₩6.8B₩9.5B₩25B₩42B
Free cash flow———₩206B₩189B₩174B₩163B₩151B
Discount factor———0.9470.8960.8480.8030.760
Present value———₩195B₩170B₩148B₩131B₩115B

Terminal value ₩6.3T, worth ₩4.8T today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩408,725 a share)Now 0.61×₩194,2520.48×₩239,5000.59×₩342,9020.84×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩34,494 a share)Now 7.22×₩115,7053.35×₩241,8837.01×₩392,78311.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.6%₩415,535₩489,474₩591,261₩740,476₩980,684
5.1%₩334,016₩387,050₩456,818₩552,856₩693,634
5.6%₩270,174₩309,487₩359,460₩425,195₩515,672
6.1%₩218,841₩248,735₩285,724₩332,736₩394,570
6.6%₩176,683₩199,879₩227,960₩262,701₩306,850

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩2.3T
Enterprise value
₩3.6T
P/E
7.2×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.6%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩225,000₩207,000₩148,000₩115,500₩127,500
Market cap₩2.1T₩1.9T₩1.4T₩1.1T₩1.2T
P/E8.9×10.7×4.3×4.2×4.7×
P/B0.7×0.7×0.5×0.5×0.6×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.2×0.1×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.0%3.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
SK Gas7.2×0.6×0.3×—3.6%
Samsung C&T17.5×0.5×1.1×—0.9%
POSCO International10.6×1.3×0.3×—3.7%
ISC41.4×5.5×11.5×—0.6%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies19.0×1.6×5.1×—4.1%
Shinsegae13.7×0.4×0.3×—2.1%
Similar companies (median)15.6×1.0×0.9×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SK Gas / SK가스 / 018670 / KRX:018670

Source: KRX statistical information