KOSDAQ · 018680 · Biotech & Pharma · ₩018680

Seoul Pharma서울제약

018680 · KOSDAQ · ₩018680 · 서울제약

₩1,884▼ ₩15 (0.79%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩596

vs the current price (₩1,884)

Enterprise value: −₩4.8B
Equity value: ₩7B
WACC: 7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 68% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩1,884, the model needs an operating margin of 2.4% every year (it uses 0.3%).
Margins ranged from −14.1% to 3.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Today's P/E is 12.6× against a typical 13.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: ₩596; −68.4%
Bull: ₩2,052; +8.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.3%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 11.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 21.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 32.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 42.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin0.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2.5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending3.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital17.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩51B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩12B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩3M; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 11,659,319
Share price: ₩1,884
Market cap: ₩22B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩52B	₩54B	₩52B	₩52B	₩53B	₩54B	₩55B	₩57B
Growth	4.8%	2.1%	−2.7%	1.4%	1.8%	2.2%	2.6%	3.0%
EBIT	₩1.2B	₩1.5B	−₩1.3B	₩155M	₩158M	₩162M	₩166M	₩171M
EBIT margin	2.3%	2.9%	−2.5%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
After-tax EBIT	₩879M	₩1.1B	−₩928M	₩113M	₩115M	₩117M	₩120M	₩124M
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩1.3B	₩1.3B	₩1.3B	₩1.4B	₩1.4B
− Capital spending	₩1.9B	₩2.2B	₩894M	₩1.7B	₩1.7B	₩1.7B	₩1.8B	₩1.8B
− Working capital	₩4.1B	₩2.1B	−₩1.4B	₩127M	₩166M	₩206M	₩249M	₩295M
Free cash flow	—	—	—	−₩377M	−₩420M	−₩466M	−₩516M	−₩570M
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.931	0.867	0.808	0.752	0.700
Present value	—	—	—	−₩351M	−₩365M	−₩377M	−₩388M	−₩399M

Terminal value −₩4.2B, worth −₩2.9B today: 61% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩3,477 a share)Now 0.54×	₩2,6170.75×	₩3,7531.08×	₩12,5863.62×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩149 a share)Now 12.6×	₩1,3168.82×	₩1,95513.1×	₩8,27755.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.4%	₩702	₩620	₩519	₩391	₩225
6.9%	₩719	₩648	₩562	₩455	₩319
7.4%	₩734	₩671	₩596	₩505	₩393
7.9%	₩747	₩691	₩625	₩546	₩451
8.4%	₩759	₩708	₩650	₩581	₩499

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩22B
Enterprise value: ₩8.1B
P/E: 12.6×
P/B: 0.5×
P/S: 0.4×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩3,080	₩3,310	₩3,830	₩5,030	₩9,100
Market cap	₩36B	₩39B	₩45B	₩59B	₩106B
P/E	47.6×	22.7×	12.7×	68.6×	—
P/B	0.9×	1.0×	1.2×	1.7×	5.6×
P/S	0.7×	0.7×	0.9×	1.2×	2.6×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Seoul Pharma	12.6×	0.5×	0.4×	—	0.0%
Samsung Biologics	32.0×	7.6×	14.0×	—	0.0%
Celltrion	27.9×	2.5×	9.0×	—	0.0%
Alteogen	80.5×	29.0×	61.2×	—	0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals	14.7×	5.8×	6.8×	—	0.0%
Yuhan	24.0×	2.4×	2.5×	31.3×	0.8%
HLB	—	15.7×	55.6×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	27.9×	6.7×	11.5×	31.3×	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Seoul Pharma / 서울제약 / 018680 / KRX:018680

Source: KRX statistical information