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Seowon

021050 · KOSPI · ₩021050 · 서원

₩953▼ ₩39 (3.93%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩11,766

vs the current price (₩953)

Enterprise value
₩838B
Equity value
₩559B
WACC
5.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 1,135% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩953, the model needs an operating margin of 1.9% every year (it uses 2.6%).
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • Today's P/E is 5.0× against a typical 3.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩11,766
+1,134.6%
Bull
₩79,548
+8,247.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (83.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (83.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (83.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (83.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (83.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 30.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.62

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.43, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩82B
+ Stakes and investments
₩6.1B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩204B
Shares
47,474,590
Share price
₩953
Market cap
₩45B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩233B₩1.2T₩1.7T₩2.5T₩2.9T₩3.4T₩3.6T₩3.7T
Growth−15.4%427.3%39.4%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT₩453M₩28B₩53B₩64B₩77B₩87B₩95B₩97B
EBIT margin0.2%2.2%3.1%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
After-tax EBIT₩328M₩20B₩39B₩46B₩55B₩63B₩69B₩71B
+ Depreciation———₩22B₩26B₩30B₩33B₩34B
− Capital spending₩1.7B₩24B₩8.8B₩27B₩32B₩37B₩40B₩41B
− Working capital−₩2.5B₩345B₩38B₩151B₩147B₩127B₩88B₩34B
Free cash flow———−₩110B−₩98B−₩70B−₩26B₩30B
Discount factor———0.9500.9030.8590.8160.776
Present value———−₩104B−₩88B−₩60B−₩21B₩23B

Terminal value ₩1.4T, worth ₩1.1T today: 130% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,453 a share)Now 0.28×₩1,2140.35×₩1,6020.46×₩3,5521.03×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩192 a share)Now 4.96×₩2131.11×₩5722.98×₩4,76524.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩366 a share)Now 2.60×₩4061.11×₩1,0892.98×₩9,07424.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.2%₩18,759₩20,777₩23,661₩28,168₩36,300
4.7%₩14,149₩15,199₩16,601₩18,592₩21,687
5.2%₩10,657₩11,149₩11,766₩12,574₩13,705
5.7%₩7,928₩8,083₩8,256₩8,454₩8,692
6.2%₩5,741₩5,687₩5,600₩5,466₩5,261

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩45B
Enterprise value
₩125B
P/E
5.0×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,101₩1,152₩1,348₩1,175₩1,945
Market cap₩52B₩55B₩64B₩56B₩92B
P/E—1.1×—201.8×21.8×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.5×0.4×1.1×
P/S0.0×0.0×0.3×0.2×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Seowon5.0×0.3×0.0×—0.0%
POSCO Holdings16.1×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.7%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.1×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings11.5×0.5×0.3×9.2×4.2%
Sama Aluminium—4.0×2.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Seowon / 서원 / 021050 / KRX:021050

Source: KRX statistical information