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Cubic Korea

021650 · KOSDAQ · ₩021650 · 한국큐빅

₩1,666▼ ₩91 (5.18%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩6,727

vs the current price (₩1,666)

Enterprise value
₩115B
Equity value
₩110B
WACC
6.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 304% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,666, the model needs an operating margin of 1.7% every year (it uses 4.1%).
  • 33% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 6.3× against a typical 6.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,056
+23.4%
Base
₩6,727
+303.8%
Bull
₩15,503
+830.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 15.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩213B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩4.9B
+ Stakes and investments
₩7M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
16,350,563
Share price
₩1,666
Market cap
₩27B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩252B₩252B₩227B₩219B₩225B₩231B₩238B₩245B
Growth20.0%0.0%−9.9%2.7%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%
EBIT₩11B₩11B₩7.9B₩9B₩9.2B₩9.5B₩9.8B₩10B
EBIT margin4.2%4.5%3.5%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%4.1%
After-tax EBIT₩7.7B₩8.3B₩5.8B₩6.5B₩6.7B₩6.9B₩7.1B₩7.3B
+ Depreciation₩7.5B₩8.2B₩8.1B₩7.2B₩7.4B₩7.6B₩7.9B₩8.1B
− Capital spending₩7.3B₩5.1B₩9.6B₩6.6B₩6.8B₩6.9B₩7.1B₩7.4B
− Working capital₩1.1B−₩1.8B₩4.5B₩870M₩893M₩952M₩1B₩1.1B
Free cash flow₩6.7B₩13B−₩280M₩6.3B₩6.5B₩6.6B₩6.8B₩6.9B
Discount factor———0.9360.8770.8210.7680.719
Present value———₩5.9B₩5.7B₩5.4B₩5.2B₩5B

Terminal value ₩122B, worth ₩88B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩6,096 a share)Now 0.27×₩2,2080.36×₩3,0480.50×₩5,0760.83×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩264 a share)Now 6.31×₩9953.77×₩1,6666.31×₩2,69710.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.8%₩7,335₩7,854₩8,507₩9,354₩10,501
6.3%₩6,629₩7,026₩7,514₩8,127₩8,924
6.8%₩6,044₩6,354₩6,727₩7,184₩7,760
7.3%₩5,551₩5,797₩6,087₩6,437₩6,865
7.8%₩5,131₩5,328₩5,558₩5,829₩6,155

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩27B
Enterprise value
₩32B
P/E
6.3×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
2.8×
Dividend yield
6.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,320₩2,255₩2,850₩2,905₩4,175
Market cap₩38B₩37B₩47B₩47B₩68B
P/E8.2×3.8×5.6×7.3×9.1×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.5×0.6×0.9×
P/S0.2×0.1×0.2×0.2×0.4×
EV/EBITDA2.5×1.9×3.1×3.7×5.2×
Dividend yield4.3%3.8%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Cubic Korea6.3×0.3×0.1×2.8×6.0%
Hankook Tire & Technology5.8×0.5×0.3×—4.0%
Kumho Tire3.1×0.6×0.3×—0.0%
Pum-Tech Korea19.5×2.5×2.1×—0.7%
Dongwon Systems9.7×0.7×0.4×5.7×2.8%
Nexen Tire3.7×0.3×0.2×—3.4%
PI Advanced Materials12.0×1.2×1.6×4.8×2.4%
Similar companies (median)7.7×0.6×0.4×5.3×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Cubic Korea / 한국큐빅 / 021650 / KRX:021650

Source: KRX statistical information