Ask Warren

Samwonsteel

023000 · KOSPI · ₩023000 · 삼원강재

₩2,075▲ ₩25 (1.22%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,425

vs the current price (₩2,075)

Enterprise value
₩117B
Equity value
₩136B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 65% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,075, the model needs an operating margin of 2.5% every year (it uses 3.6%).
  • 40% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 6.3× against a typical 7.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,197
−42.3%
Base
₩3,425
+65.1%
Bull
₩7,604
+266.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-0.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 28.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩354B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩10B
+ Stakes and investments
₩8.4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
39,739,956
Share price
₩2,075
Market cap
₩82B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩359B₩344B₩359B₩352B₩354B₩358B₩366B₩377B
Growth−1.4%−4.3%4.6%−0.4%0.4%1.3%2.1%3.0%
EBIT₩17B₩12B₩9.9B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩14B
EBIT margin4.6%3.4%2.7%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%
After-tax EBIT₩12B₩8.5B₩7.2B₩9.2B₩9.2B₩9.4B₩9.6B₩9.8B
+ Depreciation———₩7.8B₩7.8B₩7.9B₩8.1B₩8.3B
− Capital spending₩4B₩7.2B₩18B₩9.5B₩9.6B₩9.7B₩9.9B₩10B
− Working capital₩2.2B₩3.1B₩54B−₩402M₩400M₩1.3B₩2.1B₩3.1B
Free cash flow———₩7.8B₩7.1B₩6.3B₩5.6B₩4.8B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩7.3B₩6.1B₩5.1B₩4.2B₩3.4B

Terminal value ₩130B, worth ₩91B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩6,590 a share)Now 0.31×₩2,3280.35×₩2,9640.45×₩3,7320.57×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩332 a share)Now 6.25×₩2,1046.34×₩2,6187.89×₩4,15912.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩435 a share)Now 4.77×₩2,7606.34×₩3,4347.89×₩5,45712.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩3,899₩3,990₩4,100₩4,236₩4,409
6.9%₩3,598₩3,658₩3,728₩3,812₩3,915
7.4%₩3,345₩3,383₩3,425₩3,475₩3,533
7.9%₩3,129₩3,151₩3,174₩3,200₩3,229
8.4%₩2,943₩2,952₩2,962₩2,972₩2,982

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩82B
Enterprise value
₩72B
P/E
6.3×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
5.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,400₩2,345₩3,065₩2,670₩3,165
Market cap₩95B₩93B₩122B₩106B₩126B
P/E8.9×7.0×7.3×8.2×14.3×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.5×0.5×0.6×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.6%4.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samwonsteel6.3×0.3×0.2×—5.3%
Hyundai Mobis8.7×0.6×0.5×—1.8%
SL6.1×0.9×0.4×3.7×0.0%
HL Mando10.7×0.6×0.2×—1.9%
Samhyun—13.4×18.9×—0.0%
Hyundai WIA19.3×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
SNT Dynamics13.4×0.7×0.9×—6.8%
Similar companies (median)10.7×0.7×0.5×3.7×1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samwonsteel / 삼원강재 / 023000 / KRX:023000

Source: KRX statistical information