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Mhethanol

023150 · KOSPI · ₩023150 · MH에탄올

₩2,415▼ ₩80 (3.21%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩26,656

vs the current price (₩2,415)

Enterprise value
₩161B
Equity value
₩165B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 1,004% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,415, the model needs an operating margin of −0.5% every year (it uses 14.6%).
  • Margins ranged from 10.0% to 22.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩18,111
+649.9%
Base
₩26,656
+1,003.8%
Bull
₩40,454
+1,575.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (14.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 14.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 13.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -10%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩84B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩7.5B
+ Stakes and investments
₩25M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩3.1B
Shares
6,201,433
Share price
₩2,415
Market cap
₩15B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩105B₩100B₩95B₩80B₩78B₩77B₩78B₩80B
Growth−4.7%−4.8%−5.7%−5.1%−3.1%−1.0%1.0%3.0%
EBIT₩19B₩11B₩9.5B₩12B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩12B
EBIT margin17.9%10.6%10.0%14.6%14.6%14.6%14.6%14.6%
After-tax EBIT₩14B₩7.7B₩6.9B₩8.5B₩8.2B₩8.1B₩8.2B₩8.5B
+ Depreciation₩14B₩15B₩12B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩11B
− Capital spending₩4.1B₩6B₩4.3B₩3.8B₩3.7B₩3.7B₩3.7B₩3.8B
− Working capital₩3.5B−₩108B₩117B₩431M₩248M₩78M−₩77M−₩233M
Free cash flow₩20B₩124B−₩102B₩15B₩15B₩15B₩15B₩16B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩14B₩13B₩12B₩11B₩11B

Terminal value ₩142B, worth ₩99B today: 62% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩9,835 a share)Now 0.25×₩2,1370.22×₩2,7680.28×₩4,4040.45×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩787 a share)Now 3.07×₩2,6393.35×₩3,7284.74×₩5,7647.33×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩27,353₩29,216₩31,502₩34,374₩38,090
6.9%₩25,476₩27,001₩28,839₩31,094₩33,927
7.4%₩23,882₩25,151₩26,656₩28,468₩30,693
7.9%₩22,510₩23,580₩24,833₩26,317₩28,105
8.4%₩21,316₩22,229₩23,285₩24,520₩25,985

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩15B
Enterprise value
₩7.4B
P/E
—
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
0.6×
Dividend yield
5.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,438₩2,778₩3,419₩3,809₩5,106
Market cap₩15B₩17B₩21B₩24B₩32B
P/E——4.5×4.7×5.4×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×
P/S0.2×0.2×0.2×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA0.3×0.1×3.5×3.5×0.8×
Dividend yield5.1%4.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Mhethanol—0.2×0.2×0.6×5.2%
Samyang Foods18.4×5.9×3.3×—0.4%
Orion10.5×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.7×—1.5%
Otoki16.9×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.0×0.9×0.4×6.3×4.5%
Similar companies (median)16.9×0.9×0.5×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Mhethanol / MH에탄올 / 023150 / KRX:023150

Source: KRX statistical information