KOSPI · 023530 · Retail & Trade · ₩023530

Lotte Shopping롯데쇼핑

023530 · KOSPI · ₩023530 · 롯데쇼핑

₩81,300▼ ₩100 (0.12%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: ₩9.8T
Equity value: −₩3.5T
WACC: 4.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩81,300, the model needs an operating margin of 4.9% every year (it uses 3.3%).
Or revenue growth +9.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: ₩673,825; +728.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.3%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-3.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-0.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 41.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin3.3%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation4.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending5.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital-9.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.62
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.43, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩14T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩13T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩1.5T; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩1.8T
Shares: 28,288,755
Share price: ₩81,300
Market cap: ₩2.3T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩15T	₩14T	₩14T	₩13T	₩13T	₩13T	₩13T	₩14T
Growth	−5.9%	−3.9%	−1.8%	−3.9%	−2.2%	−0.4%	1.3%	3.0%
EBIT	₩508B	₩473B	₩547B	₩444B	₩434B	₩432B	₩438B	₩451B
EBIT margin	3.5%	3.4%	4.0%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%	3.3%
After-tax EBIT	₩369B	₩343B	₩397B	₩322B	₩315B	₩314B	₩318B	₩327B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩632B	₩618B	₩616B	₩624B	₩643B
− Capital spending	₩863B	₩927B	₩698B	₩794B	₩776B	₩773B	₩783B	₩807B
− Working capital	−₩434B	₩323B	₩677B	₩52B	₩28B	₩5B	−₩16B	−₩38B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩109B	₩129B	₩151B	₩174B	₩201B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.956	0.914	0.874	0.836	0.799
Present value	—	—	—	₩104B	₩118B	₩132B	₩146B	₩161B

Terminal value ₩11T, worth ₩9.1T today: 93% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩540,924 a share)Now 0.15×	₩72,5220.13×	₩113,5300.21×	₩147,0410.27×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
3.6%	—	—	₩105,075	₩380,153	₩1,123,990
4.1%	—	—	—	₩106,384	₩381,882
4.6%	—	—	—	—	₩107,490
5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
5.6%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩2.3T
Enterprise value: ₩11T
P/E: 12.7×
P/B: 0.2×
P/S: 0.2×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 4.9%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩72,500	₩54,100	₩75,000	₩91,000	₩87,200
Market cap	₩2.1T	₩1.5T	₩2.1T	₩2.6T	₩2.5T
P/E	39.8×	—	12.2×	—	—
P/B	0.1×	0.1×	0.2×	0.3×	0.2×
P/S	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.2×	0.2×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	5.5%	7.0%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Lotte Shopping	12.7×	0.2×	0.2×	—	4.9%
Samsung C&T	17.5×	0.5×	1.1×	—	0.9%
POSCO International	10.6×	1.3×	0.3×	—	3.7%
ISC	41.4×	5.5×	11.5×	—	0.6%
Youngone	5.1×	0.7×	0.7×	—	3.1%
Dong SUH Companies	19.0×	1.6×	5.1×	—	4.1%
Shinsegae	13.7×	0.4×	0.3×	—	2.1%
Similar companies (median)	15.6×	1.0×	0.9×	—	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Lotte Shopping / 롯데쇼핑 / 023530 / KRX:023530

Source: KRX statistical information