KOSDAQ · 024740 · Auto parts · ₩024740

Hanil Forging Industrial한일단조

024740 · KOSDAQ · ₩024740 · 한일단조

₩2,045 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩2,302

vs the current price (₩2,045)

Enterprise value: ₩86B
Equity value: ₩76B
WACC: 6.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩1,165; −43.0%
Base: ₩2,302; +12.5%
Bull: ₩4,460; +118.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.8%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 4-0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin5.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation5.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending4.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩143B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩9.3B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩4.8B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests: ₩6B
Shares: 32,897,049
Share price: ₩2,045
Market cap: ₩67B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩178B	₩139B	₩127B	₩128B	₩120B	₩116B	₩115B	₩119B
Growth	0.5%	−21.8%	−9.2%	−10.0%	−6.7%	−3.5%	−0.2%	3.0%
EBIT	₩15B	₩8.3B	₩3.5B	₩7.5B	₩7B	₩6.7B	₩6.7B	₩6.9B
EBIT margin	8.5%	5.9%	2.8%	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%	5.8%
After-tax EBIT	₩11B	₩6B	₩2.6B	₩5.4B	₩5B	₩4.9B	₩4.9B	₩5B
+ Depreciation	₩8.2B	₩8.5B	₩8.9B	₩7.6B	₩7.1B	₩6.8B	₩6.8B	₩7B
− Capital spending	₩5.4B	₩6.1B	₩7.6B	₩5.8B	₩5.4B	₩5.2B	₩5.2B	₩5.4B
− Working capital	−₩10B	₩39B	−₩28B	−₩5.7B	−₩3.4B	−₩1.7B	−₩93M	₩1.4B
Free cash flow	₩24B	−₩30B	₩32B	₩13B	₩10B	₩8.2B	₩6.6B	₩5.3B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.935	0.875	0.818	0.766	0.716
Present value	—	—	—	₩12B	₩8.9B	₩6.7B	₩5B	₩3.8B

Terminal value ₩70B, worth ₩50B today: 58% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩4,670 a share)Now 0.44×	₩2,4080.52×	₩3,0600.66×	₩4,4100.94×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩112 a share)Now 18.2×	₩8807.85×	₩1,58014.1×	₩2,83225.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩42 a share)Now 48.1×	₩3337.85×	₩59914.1×	₩1,07325.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
5.9%	₩2,608	₩2,697	₩2,807	₩2,948	₩3,136
6.4%	₩2,391	₩2,452	₩2,526	₩2,618	₩2,735
6.9%	₩2,210	₩2,252	₩2,302	₩2,361	₩2,435
7.4%	₩2,056	₩2,084	₩2,117	₩2,156	₩2,202
7.9%	₩1,923	₩1,942	₩1,963	₩1,987	₩2,014

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩67B
Enterprise value: ₩77B
P/E: 18.2×
P/B: 0.4×
P/S: 0.5×
EV/EBITDA: 4.2×
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩2,150	₩1,993	₩2,290	₩2,510	₩2,325
Market cap	₩71B	₩66B	₩75B	₩83B	₩76B
P/E	48.2×	10.5×	10.1×	12.0×	—
P/B	0.5×	0.5×	0.6×	0.7×	0.8×
P/S	0.6×	0.5×	0.4×	0.5×	0.5×
EV/EBITDA	8.3×	7.9×	5.8×	7.4×	31.5×
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Hanil Forging Industrial	18.2×	0.4×	0.5×	4.2×	0.0%
Hyundai Mobis	8.3×	0.6×	0.5×	—	1.9%
SL	5.9×	0.8×	0.4×	3.6×	0.0%
HL Mando	10.3×	0.6×	0.2×	—	2.0%
Hyundai WIA	18.9×	0.4×	0.2×	—	2.4%
Samhyun	—	11.2×	15.8×	—	0.0%
SNT Dynamics	12.5×	0.7×	0.8×	—	7.3%
Similar companies (median)	10.3×	0.6×	0.4×	3.6×	2.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hanil Forging Industrial / 한일단조 / 024740 / KRX:024740

Source: KRX statistical information