Ask Warren

DY Deokyang

024900 · KOSPI · ₩024900 · 디와이덕양

₩2,030▼ ₩50 (2.40%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩4,087

vs the current price (₩2,030)

Enterprise value
₩123B
Equity value
₩133B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 101% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,030, the model needs an operating margin of 0.3% every year (it uses 0.6%).
  • Or revenue growth −9.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • 100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 25.5× against a typical 11.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩4,087
+101.3%
Bull
₩27,863
+1,272.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 4.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -3.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.36, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1.7T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩9.6B
+ Stakes and investments
₩375M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩257M
Shares
32,564,980
Share price
₩2,030
Market cap
₩66B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩1.9T₩1.9T₩1.7T₩1.8T₩1.8T₩1.9T₩2T₩2T
Growth21.7%0.4%−7.7%4.1%3.8%3.5%3.3%3.0%
EBIT₩28B₩8.2B₩3.2B₩11B₩11B₩11B₩12B₩12B
EBIT margin1.5%0.4%0.2%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%
After-tax EBIT₩20B₩6B₩2.3B₩7.7B₩8B₩8.2B₩8.5B₩8.8B
+ Depreciation———₩23B₩24B₩25B₩25B₩26B
− Capital spending₩29B₩39B₩19B₩28B₩29B₩30B₩31B₩32B
− Working capital−₩19B−₩16B−₩1.4B−₩2.6B−₩2.5B−₩2.4B−₩2.3B−₩2.2B
Free cash flow———₩5B₩5B₩4.9B₩5B₩4.9B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩4.6B₩4.3B₩4B₩3.7B₩3.4B

Terminal value ₩147B, worth ₩103B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,531 a share)Now 0.57×₩2,1900.62×₩4,5391.29×₩7,3992.10×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩80 a share)Now 25.5×₩5026.31×₩89011.2×₩2,70634.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩3,902₩4,405₩5,027₩5,815₩6,843
6.8%₩3,575₩3,997₩4,508₩5,140₩5,939
7.3%₩3,300₩3,659₩4,087₩4,606₩5,247
7.8%₩3,066₩3,376₩3,739₩4,173₩4,699
8.3%₩2,865₩3,134₩3,447₩3,816₩4,255

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩66B
Enterprise value
₩31B
P/E
25.5×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,080₩2,980₩5,920₩2,395₩3,305
Market cap₩68B₩97B₩193B₩78B₩108B
P/E54.5×5.8×15.5×4.9×17.4×
P/B0.6×0.9×2.0×0.9×1.9×
P/S0.0×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.9%1.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
DY Deokyang25.5×0.6×0.0×—3.0%
Hyundai Mobis8.3×0.6×0.5×—1.9%
SL5.9×0.8×0.4×3.6×0.0%
HL Mando10.3×0.6×0.2×—2.0%
Hyundai WIA18.9×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
Samhyun—11.2×15.8×—0.0%
SNT Dynamics12.5×0.7×0.8×—7.3%
Similar companies (median)10.3×0.6×0.4×3.6×2.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: DY Deokyang / 디와이덕양 / 024900 / KRX:024900

Source: KRX statistical information