Kyungchang Industrial경창산업
024910 · KOSDAQ · ₩024910 · 경창산업
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩4,795
vs the current price (₩1,345)
- Enterprise value
- ₩248B
- Equity value
- ₩172B
- WACC
- 5.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 257% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,345, the model needs an operating margin of 1.7% every year (it uses 2.4%).
- Or revenue growth −19.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩4,795
- +256.5%
- Bull
- ₩24,135
- +1,694.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.4%).
Revenue growth
- 4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 4.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.34, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩711B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩66B
- − Minority interests
- ₩10B
- Shares
- 35,819,005
- Share price
- ₩1,345
- Market cap
- ₩48B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩667B | ₩638B | ₩705B | ₩744B | ₩775B | ₩804B | ₩832B | ₩857B |
| Growth | 8.4% | −4.4% | 10.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩21B | ₩9.6B | ₩7.3B | ₩18B | ₩19B | ₩19B | ₩20B | ₩21B |
| EBIT margin | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩15B | ₩7B | ₩5.3B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B | ₩15B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩29B | ₩30B | ₩31B | ₩32B | ₩33B |
| − Capital spending | ₩31B | ₩27B | ₩41B | ₩36B | ₩38B | ₩39B | ₩41B | ₩42B |
| − Working capital | −₩22B | ₩17B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.3B | ₩2.1B | ₩1.9B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩3B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.7B | ₩4B | ₩4.4B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.948 | 0.899 | 0.853 | 0.809 | 0.767 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩2.8B | ₩3B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B |
Terminal value ₩303B, worth ₩232B today: 94% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,417 a share)Now 0.39× | ₩1,4650.43× | ₩2,1390.63× | ₩3,7751.10× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩626 a share)Now 2.15× | ₩3,7706.02× | ₩7,24111.6× | ₩20,15232.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% | ₩5,492 | ₩6,494 | ₩7,903 | ₩10,030 | ₩13,620 |
| 4.9% | ₩4,430 | ₩5,138 | ₩6,084 | ₩7,413 | ₩9,421 |
| 5.4% | ₩3,609 | ₩4,128 | ₩4,795 | ₩5,687 | ₩6,939 |
| 5.9% | ₩2,955 | ₩3,347 | ₩3,835 | ₩4,463 | ₩5,302 |
| 6.4% | ₩2,424 | ₩2,725 | ₩3,093 | ₩3,552 | ₩4,142 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩48B
- Enterprise value
- ₩113B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,496 | ₩1,923 | ₩2,395 | ₩1,995 | ₩3,475 |
| Market cap | ₩54B | ₩69B | ₩86B | ₩71B | ₩124B |
| P/E | — | 24.5× | 9.4× | 3.5× | 29.4× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.6× | 0.6× | 1.4× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 1.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyungchang Industrial | — | 0.4× | 0.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai Mobis | 8.7× | 0.6× | 0.5× | — | 1.8% |
| SL | 6.1× | 0.9× | 0.4× | 3.7× | 0.0% |
| HL Mando | 10.7× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| Samhyun | — | 13.4× | 18.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai WIA | 19.3× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 2.4% |
| SNT Dynamics | 13.4× | 0.7× | 0.9× | — | 6.8% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.7× | 0.7× | 0.5× | 3.7× | 1.9% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Kyungchang Industrial / 경창산업 / 024910 / KRX:024910
Source: KRX statistical information