Kyungchang Industrial

024910 · KOSDAQ · ₩024910 · 경창산업

₩1,345▲ ₩30 (2.28%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩4,795

vs the current price (₩1,345)

Enterprise value
₩248B
Equity value
₩172B
WACC
5.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 257% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,345, the model needs an operating margin of 1.7% every year (it uses 2.4%).
  • Or revenue growth −19.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩4,795
+256.5%
Bull
₩24,135
+1,694.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.4%).

Revenue growth

  • 4.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 7.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.34, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩711B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩66B
− Minority interests
₩10B
Shares
35,819,005
Share price
₩1,345
Market cap
₩48B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩667B₩638B₩705B₩744B₩775B₩804B₩832B₩857B
Growth8.4%−4.4%10.5%4.6%4.2%3.8%3.4%3.0%
EBIT₩21B₩9.6B₩7.3B₩18B₩19B₩19B₩20B₩21B
EBIT margin3.2%1.5%1.0%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%2.4%
After-tax EBIT₩15B₩7B₩5.3B₩13B₩13B₩14B₩14B₩15B
+ Depreciation———₩29B₩30B₩31B₩32B₩33B
− Capital spending₩31B₩27B₩41B₩36B₩38B₩39B₩41B₩42B
− Working capital−₩22B₩17B₩2.8B₩2.5B₩2.4B₩2.3B₩2.1B₩1.9B
Free cash flow———₩3B₩3.3B₩3.7B₩4B₩4.4B
Discount factor———0.9480.8990.8530.8090.767
Present value———₩2.8B₩3B₩3.1B₩3.3B₩3.4B

Terminal value ₩303B, worth ₩232B today: 94% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,417 a share)Now 0.39×₩1,4650.43×₩2,1390.63×₩3,7751.10×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩626 a share)Now 2.15×₩3,7706.02×₩7,24111.6×₩20,15232.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.4%₩5,492₩6,494₩7,903₩10,030₩13,620
4.9%₩4,430₩5,138₩6,084₩7,413₩9,421
5.4%₩3,609₩4,128₩4,795₩5,687₩6,939
5.9%₩2,955₩3,347₩3,835₩4,463₩5,302
6.4%₩2,424₩2,725₩3,093₩3,552₩4,142

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩48B
Enterprise value
₩113B
P/E
—
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,496₩1,923₩2,395₩1,995₩3,475
Market cap₩54B₩69B₩86B₩71B₩124B
P/E—24.5×9.4×3.5×29.4×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.6×0.6×1.4×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%1.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kyungchang Industrial—0.4×0.1×—0.0%
Hyundai Mobis8.7×0.6×0.5×—1.8%
SL6.1×0.9×0.4×3.7×0.0%
HL Mando10.7×0.6×0.2×—1.9%
Samhyun—13.4×18.9×—0.0%
Hyundai WIA19.3×0.4×0.2×—2.4%
SNT Dynamics13.4×0.7×0.9×—6.8%
Similar companies (median)10.7×0.7×0.5×3.7×1.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kyungchang Industrial / 경창산업 / 024910 / KRX:024910

Source: KRX statistical information