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Samchuly Bicycle

024950 · KOSDAQ · ₩024950 · 삼천리자전거

₩4,715▼ ₩10 (0.21%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩10,703

vs the current price (₩4,715)

Enterprise value
₩120B
Equity value
₩124B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 127% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,715, the model needs an operating margin of 1.9% every year (it uses 4.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −20.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −5.9% to 8.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 9.6× against a typical 12.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,882
−17.7%
Base
₩10,703
+127.0%
Bull
₩22,744
+382.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 14.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 11.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 3.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩172B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩80B
+ Stakes and investments
₩9M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩76B
Shares
11,578,297
Share price
₩4,715
Market cap
₩55B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩107B₩161B₩176B₩197B₩220B₩240B₩254B₩261B
Growth−8.1%50.9%8.9%14.7%11.8%8.9%5.9%3.0%
EBIT−₩6.3B₩3B₩12B₩7.9B₩8.8B₩9.6B₩10B₩10B
EBIT margin−5.9%1.9%7.1%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩4.6B₩2.2B₩9B₩5.7B₩6.4B₩6.9B₩7.4B₩7.6B
+ Depreciation———₩1.4B₩1.5B₩1.7B₩1.8B₩1.8B
− Capital spending₩1.6B₩436M₩1.5B₩1.8B₩2B₩2.2B₩2.3B₩2.4B
− Working capital−₩12B−₩15B−₩15B₩908M₩836M₩705M₩509M₩274M
Free cash flow———₩4.4B₩5.1B₩5.8B₩6.3B₩6.8B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩4.1B₩4.4B₩4.7B₩4.8B₩4.8B

Terminal value ₩139B, worth ₩97B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩8,865 a share)Now 0.53×₩4,5380.51×₩6,0900.69×₩9,9841.13×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩490 a share)Now 9.63×₩4,1508.47×₩6,34212.9×₩14,75430.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩941 a share)Now 5.01×₩7,9758.47×₩12,18812.9×₩28,35430.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩11,191₩12,095₩13,208₩14,613₩16,442
6.8%₩10,213₩10,944₩11,825₩12,910₩14,279
7.3%₩9,392₩9,991₩10,703₩11,562₩12,619
7.8%₩8,692₩9,191₩9,775₩10,468₩11,305
8.3%₩8,088₩8,508₩8,994₩9,564₩10,240

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩55B
Enterprise value
−₩29B
P/E
9.6×
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,473₩4,425₩6,981₩7,884₩11,546
Market cap₩52B₩51B₩81B₩91B₩134B
P/E8.8×—15.9×—30.7×
P/B0.5×0.6×0.9×1.0×1.4×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.8×0.8×1.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.4%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Samchuly Bicycle9.6×0.5×0.3×—2.3%
Samsung C&T18.1×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.3×1.2×0.3×—3.8%
ISC42.6×5.7×11.9×—0.5%
Youngone5.2×0.7×0.7×—3.0%
Dong SUH Companies19.6×1.7×5.3×—4.0%
SK Gas7.4×0.6×0.3×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)14.2×1.0×0.9×—3.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Samchuly Bicycle / 삼천리자전거 / 024950 / KRX:024950

Source: KRX statistical information