Synopex시노펙스
025320 · KOSDAQ · ₩025320 · 시노펙스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,030
vs the current price (₩3,490)
- Enterprise value
- ₩96B
- Equity value
- ₩95B
- WACC
- 7.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 70% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩3,490, the model needs an operating margin of 12.0% every year (it uses 4.7%).
- Or revenue growth +34.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩278
- −92.0%
- Base
- ₩1,030
- −70.5%
- Bull
- ₩2,346
- −32.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.7%).
Revenue growth
- 2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 8.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 10.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.68
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.53, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩238B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩1.8B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩302M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 92,220,753
- Share price
- ₩3,490
- Market cap
- ₩322B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩262B | ₩238B | ₩262B | ₩243B | ₩249B | ₩255B | ₩262B | ₩270B |
| Growth | 7.1% | −9.1% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩24B | ₩21B | ₩6.8B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩13B |
| EBIT margin | 9.2% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩18B | ₩15B | ₩4.9B | ₩8.3B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.7B | ₩8.9B | ₩9.2B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩17B | ₩17B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩18B |
| − Capital spending | ₩20B | ₩25B | ₩19B | ₩21B | ₩21B | ₩22B | ₩22B | ₩23B |
| − Working capital | −₩946M | −₩1.4B | ₩3.8B | ₩549M | ₩612M | ₩679M | ₩750M | ₩826M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩3.6B | ₩3.6B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.8B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.927 | 0.860 | 0.798 | 0.740 | 0.686 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩3.3B | ₩3.1B | ₩2.9B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.6B |
Terminal value ₩119B, worth ₩82B today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩1,938 a share)Now 1.80× | ₩3,9952.06× | ₩5,9433.07× | ₩10,2065.27× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | ₩1,106 | ₩1,180 | ₩1,269 | ₩1,378 | ₩1,516 |
| 7.3% | ₩1,007 | ₩1,067 | ₩1,138 | ₩1,223 | ₩1,328 |
| 7.8% | ₩924 | ₩973 | ₩1,030 | ₩1,097 | ₩1,179 |
| 8.3% | ₩852 | ₩892 | ₩939 | ₩994 | ₩1,058 |
| 8.8% | ₩789 | ₩823 | ₩862 | ₩906 | ₩958 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩322B
- Enterprise value
- ₩323B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 1.8×
- P/S
- 1.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,070 | ₩5,647 | ₩6,851 | ₩2,158 | ₩2,404 |
| Market cap | ₩560B | ₩521B | ₩632B | ₩199B | ₩222B |
| P/E | 75.9× | 18.6× | 43.3× | 23.5× | 22.2× |
| P/B | 3.3× | 3.1× | 4.7× | 1.9× | 2.5× |
| P/S | 2.1× | 2.2× | 2.4× | 0.8× | 1.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synopex | — | 1.8× | 1.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Electro-Mechanics | 96.8× | 9.5× | 7.8× | — | 0.2% |
| Doosan | 39.2× | 5.5× | 0.7× | — | 0.4% |
| Hanwha Systems | 71.2× | 2.8× | 3.0× | — | 0.8% |
| LG Innotek | 13.1× | 1.4× | 0.4× | — | 0.5% |
| Isupetasys | 35.4× | 8.3× | 5.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Daeduck Electronics | 44.8× | 7.0× | 5.0× | — | 0.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 42.0× | 6.3× | 4.0× | — | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Synopex / 시노펙스 / 025320 / KRX:025320
Source: KRX statistical information