Silla SG신라에스지
025870 · KOSDAQ · ₩025870 · 신라에스지
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- ₩8.7B
- Equity value
- −₩9.6B
- WACC
- 4.6%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,059, the model needs an operating margin of 2.2% every year (it uses 1.5%).
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩17,130
- +1,517.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.5%).
Revenue growth
- -1.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 1.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 20.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩73B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩18B
- Shares
- 4,000,000
- Share price
- ₩1,059
- Market cap
- ₩4.2B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩88B | ₩86B | ₩70B | ₩72B | ₩72B | ₩72B | ₩74B | ₩76B |
| Growth | 20.4% | −3.1% | −18.2% | −1.6% | −0.4% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩1.7B | ₩1.1B | −₩1.6B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B |
| EBIT margin | 1.9% | 1.3% | −2.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩1.2B | ₩832M | −₩1.1B | ₩785M | ₩782M | ₩788M | ₩803M | ₩827M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩2.9B | ₩2.9B | ₩2.9B | ₩3B | ₩3B |
| − Working capital | ₩2.7B | −₩6B | −₩156M | −₩242M | −₩60M | ₩104M | ₩283M | ₩456M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩305M | ₩122M | −₩40M | −₩219M | −₩390M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.956 | 0.913 | 0.873 | 0.834 | 0.797 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩292M | ₩112M | −₩35M | −₩183M | −₩311M |
Terminal value ₩11B, worth ₩8.8B today: 101% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,598 a share)Now 0.29× | ₩4,4091.23× | ₩6,0101.67× | ₩9,4312.62× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩801 a share)Now 1.32× | ₩23,43529.3× | ₩29,27936.6× | ₩38,76948.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.6% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩4.2B
- Enterprise value
- ₩23B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩5,360 | ₩6,120 | ₩7,710 | ₩9,700 | ₩12,200 |
| Market cap | ₩21B | ₩24B | ₩31B | ₩39B | ₩49B |
| P/E | — | 201.8× | 103.5× | 34.2× | 34.1× |
| P/B | 1.5× | 1.4× | 1.8× | 2.2× | 3.1× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silla SG | — | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung C&T | 17.0× | 0.4× | 1.1× | — | 1.0% |
| POSCO International | 10.5× | 1.2× | 0.3× | — | 3.7% |
| Youngone | 5.1× | 0.7× | 0.7× | — | 3.1% |
| ISC | 38.4× | 5.1× | 10.7× | — | 0.6% |
| Dong SUH Companies | 18.8× | 1.6× | 5.1× | — | 4.2% |
| SK Gas | 7.3× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 3.6% |
| Similar companies (median) | 13.7× | 1.0× | 0.9× | — | 3.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Silla SG / 신라에스지 / 025870 / KRX:025870
Source: KRX statistical information