FarmStory팜스토리
027710 · KOSDAQ · ₩027710 · 팜스토리
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩4,678
vs the current price (₩1,119)
- Enterprise value
- ₩432B
- Equity value
- ₩521B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 318% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩1,119, the model needs an operating margin of 0.5% every year (it uses 2.5%).
- Today's P/E is 7.4× against a typical 8.1× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩1,175
- +5.0%
- Base
- ₩4,678
- +318.1%
- Bull
- ₩11,040
- +886.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.5%).
Revenue growth
- 0.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 6.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.4T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩60B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩87B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩58B
- Shares
- 111,416,600
- Share price
- ₩1,119
- Market cap
- ₩125B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T |
| Growth | 5.2% | −3.1% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩26B | ₩41B | ₩35B | ₩36B | ₩37B | ₩37B | ₩38B | ₩39B |
| EBIT margin | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩19B | ₩30B | ₩25B | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩27B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩13B |
| − Capital spending | ₩6.6B | ₩12B | ₩23B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B |
| − Working capital | −₩5.4B | −₩497B | ₩38B | ₩624M | ₩1.2B | ₩1.6B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.8B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩24B | ₩24B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩23B | ₩21B | ₩19B | ₩18B | ₩17B |
Terminal value ₩478B, worth ₩334B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩2,566 a share)Now 0.44× | ₩1,1530.45× | ₩2,1700.85× | ₩3,3731.31× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩151 a share)Now 7.41× | ₩7184.75× | ₩1,2288.13× | ₩8,50956.3× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩406 a share)Now 2.76× | ₩1,9294.75× | ₩3,2988.13× | ₩22,86156.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩4,935 | ₩5,215 | ₩5,559 | ₩5,989 | ₩6,545 |
| 6.9% | ₩4,580 | ₩4,804 | ₩5,074 | ₩5,403 | ₩5,816 |
| 7.4% | ₩4,282 | ₩4,463 | ₩4,678 | ₩4,936 | ₩5,252 |
| 7.9% | ₩4,026 | ₩4,176 | ₩4,350 | ₩4,555 | ₩4,802 |
| 8.4% | ₩3,805 | ₩3,930 | ₩4,072 | ₩4,239 | ₩4,436 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩125B
- Enterprise value
- ₩65B
- P/E
- 7.4×
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 8.9%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,146 | ₩1,143 | ₩1,605 | ₩1,640 | ₩2,270 |
| Market cap | ₩128B | ₩127B | ₩179B | ₩183B | ₩253B |
| P/E | 4.2× | 32.7× | 17.9× | — | 49.6× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.5× | 0.8× | 0.9× | 1.2× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 8.7% | 2.2% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FarmStory | 7.4× | 0.4× | 0.1× | — | 8.9% |
| Samyang Foods | 18.4× | 5.9× | 3.3× | — | 0.4% |
| Orion | 10.5× | 1.1× | 1.2× | 5.3× | 3.1% |
| CJ Cheiljedang | — | 0.3× | 0.1× | — | 3.5% |
| Nongshim | 12.0× | 0.8× | 0.7× | — | 1.5% |
| Otoki | 16.9× | 0.6× | 0.3× | — | 2.9% |
| Hite Jinro | 23.0× | 0.9× | 0.4× | 6.3× | 4.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.9× | 0.9× | 0.5× | 5.8× | 3.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: FarmStory / 팜스토리 / 027710 / KRX:027710
Source: KRX statistical information