KOSPI · 027970 · Wood & Paper · ₩027970

Hankuk Paper MFG한국제지

027970 · KOSPI · ₩027970 · 한국제지

₩1,824▼ ₩105 (5.44%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: −₩64B
Equity value: −₩204B
WACC: 7.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩1,824, the model needs an operating margin of 3.2% every year (it uses 1.7%).
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: ₩8,253; +352.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.7%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 125%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (49.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 219.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (49.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 314%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (49.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 48.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (49.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (49.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin1.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation1.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital31.6%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta1.87
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 2.29, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩782B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩154B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩14B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 38,030,144
Share price: ₩1,824
Market cap: ₩69B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩712B	₩792B	₩754B	₩977B	₩1.2T	₩1.3T	₩1.4T	₩1.5T
Growth	213.2%	11.2%	−4.8%	25.0%	19.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.0%
EBIT	₩14B	₩19B	₩3.1B	₩17B	₩20B	₩23B	₩25B	₩25B
EBIT margin	1.9%	2.4%	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
After-tax EBIT	₩9.8B	₩14B	₩2.3B	₩12B	₩14B	₩16B	₩18B	₩18B
+ Depreciation	₩12B	₩8.1B	₩9.6B	₩13B	₩15B	₩17B	₩19B	₩19B
− Capital spending	₩11B	₩26B	₩9.4B	₩20B	₩23B	₩27B	₩29B	₩30B
− Working capital	₩206B	₩40B	−₩50B	₩62B	₩60B	₩52B	₩36B	₩14B
Free cash flow	−₩195B	−₩44B	₩52B	−₩57B	−₩54B	−₩45B	−₩28B	−₩5.8B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.933	0.870	0.812	0.757	0.707
Present value	—	—	—	−₩53B	−₩47B	−₩36B	−₩21B	−₩4.1B

Terminal value ₩138B, worth ₩97B today: -152% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩9,462 a share)Now 0.19×	₩3,1250.33×	₩4,3100.46×	₩28,0652.97×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
8.2%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩69B
Enterprise value: ₩213B
P/E: —
P/B: 0.2×
P/S: 0.1×
EV/EBITDA: 15.8×
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩4,000	₩4,190	₩5,635	₩5,625	₩8,050
Market cap	₩152B	₩159B	₩214B	₩214B	₩306B
P/E	—	38.9×	—	94.5×	29.9×
P/B	0.4×	0.4×	0.5×	2.1×	3.1×
P/S	0.2×	0.2×	0.3×	0.9×	1.5×
EV/EBITDA	22.2×	12.3×	13.3×	22.6×	16.4×
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Hankuk Paper MFG	—	0.2×	0.1×	15.8×	0.0%
SM Kukil	—	3.3×	6.2×	—	0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper	10.0×	0.5×	0.5×	—	2.8%
Asia Paper Manufacturing	10.3×	0.3×	0.3×	—	2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise	—	0.3×	0.3×	—	0.0%
Hansol Paper	7.3×	0.2×	0.1×	—	7.4%
Sambo Corrugated Board	4.5×	0.2×	0.2×	—	2.4%
Similar companies (median)	8.7×	0.3×	0.3×	—	2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hankuk Paper MFG / 한국제지 / 027970 / KRX:027970

Source: KRX statistical information