KC케이씨
029460 · KOSPI · ₩029460 · 케이씨
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩58,732
vs the current price (₩36,650)
- Enterprise value
- ₩585B
- Equity value
- ₩647B
- WACC
- 7.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 60% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩36,650, the model needs an operating margin of 5.4% every year (it uses 8.0%).
- Or revenue growth −17.0 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Margins ranged from 3.8% to 11.8% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 43% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
- Today's P/E is 7.4× against a typical 4.4× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩33,280
- −9.2%
- Base
- ₩58,732
- +60.3%
- Bull
- ₩102,437
- +179.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.0%).
Revenue growth
- -2.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -1.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 5.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 22.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.69
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.53, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩814B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩62B
- Shares
- 11,020,535
- Share price
- ₩36,650
- Market cap
- ₩404B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩727B | ₩738B | ₩797B | ₩794B | ₩786B | ₩788B | ₩801B | ₩825B |
| Growth | −15.3% | 1.6% | 8.0% | −2.4% | −1.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩66B | ₩28B | ₩46B | ₩64B | ₩63B | ₩63B | ₩64B | ₩66B |
| EBIT margin | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩48B | ₩20B | ₩34B | ₩46B | ₩46B | ₩46B | ₩46B | ₩48B |
| + Depreciation | ₩18B | ₩19B | ₩23B | ₩21B | ₩21B | ₩21B | ₩22B | ₩22B |
| − Capital spending | ₩45B | ₩38B | ₩51B | ₩47B | ₩46B | ₩46B | ₩47B | ₩49B |
| − Working capital | −₩148B | ₩135B | ₩47B | −₩4.5B | −₩2B | ₩540M | ₩2.9B | ₩5.5B |
| Free cash flow | ₩169B | −₩133B | −₩41B | ₩25B | ₩22B | ₩20B | ₩18B | ₩16B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.927 | 0.860 | 0.798 | 0.740 | 0.686 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩23B | ₩19B | ₩16B | ₩13B | ₩11B |
Terminal value ₩732B, worth ₩502B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩87,919 a share)Now 0.42× | ₩22,4210.26× | ₩27,4600.31× | ₩36,6500.42× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩4,935 a share)Now 7.43× | ₩10,6932.17× | ₩21,7644.41× | ₩43,9008.90× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩8,014 a share)Now 4.57× | ₩17,3662.17× | ₩35,3444.41× | ₩71,2918.90× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | ₩62,760 | ₩66,493 | ₩70,987 | ₩76,505 | ₩83,449 |
| 7.3% | ₩57,709 | ₩60,716 | ₩64,276 | ₩68,560 | ₩73,822 |
| 7.8% | ₩53,413 | ₩55,867 | ₩58,732 | ₩62,124 | ₩66,206 |
| 8.3% | ₩49,717 | ₩51,743 | ₩54,079 | ₩56,807 | ₩60,036 |
| 8.8% | ₩46,505 | ₩48,194 | ₩50,121 | ₩52,344 | ₩54,939 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩404B
- Enterprise value
- ₩342B
- P/E
- 7.4×
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.0×
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩25,500 | ₩16,590 | ₩18,410 | ₩17,050 | ₩22,850 |
| Market cap | ₩281B | ₩183B | ₩203B | ₩188B | ₩252B |
| P/E | 6.4× | 3.9× | 4.3× | 1.9× | 4.8× |
| P/B | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.4× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.2× | 0.3× | 0.2× | 0.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2× | 1.4× | — | 0.9× | 2.3× |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 1.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 7.4× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 5.0× | 1.2% |
| TSE | 27.5× | 6.1× | 5.1× | — | 0.2% |
| Kctech | 20.8× | 3.2× | 3.8× | 16.1× | 0.5% |
| Classys | 12.6× | 3.1× | 4.7× | 9.8× | 3.8% |
| Park Systems | 68.1× | 4.6× | 8.1× | — | 0.2% |
| Curiox Biosystems | — | 21.9× | 187.1× | — | 0.0% |
| DI | 36.7× | 5.0× | 2.2× | — | 0.7% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.5× | 4.8× | 4.9× | 13.0× | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: KC / 케이씨 / 029460 / KRX:029460
Source: KRX statistical information