Shinsegae International신세계인터내셔날
031430 · KOSPI · ₩031430 · 신세계인터내셔날
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩7,969
vs the current price (₩10,330)
- Enterprise value
- ₩354B
- Equity value
- ₩279B
- WACC
- 5.9%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩7,969
- −22.9%
- Bull
- ₩25,474
- +146.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.2%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 3.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.
- 27.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.24, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.1T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩272B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩202B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩5.4B
- Shares
- 34,986,000
- Share price
- ₩10,330
- Market cap
- ₩361B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.4T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.1T | ₩976B | ₩911B | ₩879B | ₩877B | ₩903B |
| Growth | −12.8% | −3.4% | −15.2% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩49B | ₩27B | −₩11B | ₩31B | ₩29B | ₩28B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| EBIT margin | 3.6% | 2.1% | −1.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩35B | ₩19B | −₩8.3B | ₩23B | ₩21B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩21B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩29B | ₩27B | ₩26B | ₩26B | ₩27B |
| − Capital spending | — | — | — | ₩39B | ₩36B | ₩35B | ₩35B | ₩36B |
| − Working capital | −₩50B | ₩69B | ₩49B | −₩30B | −₩18B | −₩8.8B | −₩483M | ₩7.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩43B | ₩30B | ₩20B | ₩12B | ₩4.7B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.944 | 0.891 | 0.841 | 0.794 | 0.749 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩40B | ₩27B | ₩17B | ₩9.6B | ₩3.5B |
Terminal value ₩343B, worth ₩257B today: 73% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩24,110 a share)Now 0.43× | ₩10,3300.43× | ₩16,0950.67× | ₩35,3171.46× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩182 a share)Now 56.9× | ₩1,1426.29× | ₩1,84810.2× | ₩7,10939.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | ₩9,732 | ₩10,275 | ₩10,993 | ₩11,992 | ₩13,490 |
| 5.4% | ₩8,498 | ₩8,835 | ₩9,263 | ₩9,826 | ₩10,607 |
| 5.9% | ₩7,513 | ₩7,719 | ₩7,969 | ₩8,285 | ₩8,699 |
| 6.4% | ₩6,709 | ₩6,827 | ₩6,965 | ₩7,132 | ₩7,341 |
| 6.9% | ₩6,039 | ₩6,098 | ₩6,163 | ₩6,237 | ₩6,324 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩361B
- Enterprise value
- ₩532B
- P/E
- 56.9×
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 3.9%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩10,950 | ₩10,100 | ₩18,300 | ₩24,750 | ₩29,101 |
| Market cap | ₩383B | ₩353B | ₩640B | ₩866B | ₩1T |
| P/E | 93.0× | 10.9× | 16.3× | 7.3× | 12.4× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.8× | 1.0× | 1.4× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.5× | 0.6× | 0.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 3.7% | 4.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shinsegae International | 56.9× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 3.9% |
| Samsung C&T | 18.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× | — | 0.9% |
| POSCO International | 10.6× | 1.3× | 0.3× | — | 3.7% |
| ISC | 45.3× | 6.0× | 12.6× | — | 0.5% |
| Youngone | 5.1× | 0.7× | 0.7× | — | 3.1% |
| Dong SUH Companies | 18.9× | 1.6× | 5.1× | — | 4.2% |
| Shinsegae | 14.4× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 2.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.6× | 1.0× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Shinsegae International / 신세계인터내셔날 / 031430 / KRX:031430
Source: KRX statistical information