Itcencts아이티센씨티에스
031820 · KOSPI · ₩031820 · 아이티센씨티에스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩14,308
vs the current price (₩5,080)
- Enterprise value
- ₩182B
- Equity value
- ₩173B
- WACC
- 13.6%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 182% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩5,080, the model needs an operating margin of 1.4% every year (it uses 2.5%).
- Or revenue growth −28.1 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- 64% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
- Today's P/E is 0.7× against a typical 3.2× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩14,308
- +181.7%
- Bull
- ₩37,875
- +645.6%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.5%).
Revenue growth
- 15.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (15.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 12.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (15.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 9.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (15.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (15.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (15.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 2.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 2
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 6.3, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.1T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩9.2B
- Shares
- 12,105,146
- Share price
- ₩5,080
- Market cap
- ₩61B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩893B | ₩995B | ₩1.1T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.8T |
| Growth | 25.7% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 15.6% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩16B | ₩21B | ₩24B | ₩33B | ₩37B | ₩41B | ₩43B | ₩44B |
| EBIT margin | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩11B | ₩15B | ₩17B | ₩24B | ₩27B | ₩29B | ₩31B | ₩32B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩29B | ₩33B | ₩36B | ₩38B | ₩39B |
| − Capital spending | ₩2.5B | ₩56B | ₩27B | ₩37B | ₩42B | ₩46B | ₩48B | ₩50B |
| − Working capital | ₩67B | −₩8.1B | −₩46B | ₩3.9B | ₩3.6B | ₩3B | ₩2.2B | ₩1.1B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩14B | ₩17B | ₩19B | ₩20B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.880 | 0.774 | 0.681 | 0.600 | 0.528 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
Terminal value ₩241B, worth ₩127B today: 70% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩20,933 a share)Now 0.24× | ₩7,5840.36× | ₩10,9920.53× | ₩16,8180.80× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩6,838 a share)Now 0.74× | ₩7,1501.05× | ₩21,8483.20× | ₩128,83518.8× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,737 a share)Now 2.92× | ₩1,8171.05× | ₩5,5513.20× | ₩32,73518.8× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.6% | ₩14,953 | ₩15,424 | ₩15,939 | ₩16,503 | ₩17,126 |
| 13.1% | ₩14,205 | ₩14,627 | ₩15,086 | ₩15,587 | ₩16,137 |
| 13.6% | ₩13,518 | ₩13,897 | ₩14,308 | ₩14,755 | ₩15,244 |
| 14.1% | ₩12,885 | ₩13,227 | ₩13,597 | ₩13,997 | ₩14,433 |
| 14.6% | ₩12,301 | ₩12,610 | ₩12,943 | ₩13,303 | ₩13,694 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩61B
- Enterprise value
- ₩71B
- P/E
- 0.7×
- P/B
- 0.2×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩5,920 | ₩5,340 | ₩7,640 | ₩6,070 | ₩9,300 |
| Market cap | ₩72B | ₩65B | ₩92B | ₩73B | ₩113B |
| P/E | 1.4× | 2.6× | 27.9× | 2.2× | 24.2× |
| P/B | 0.3× | 0.4× | 0.6× | 0.5× | 0.8× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | 1.5× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itcencts | 0.7× | 0.2× | 0.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung SDS | 24.6× | 1.5× | 1.1× | — | 1.5% |
| LG CNS | 15.5× | 2.5× | 1.2× | — | 2.4% |
| Itcenglobal | 7.0× | 3.0× | 0.0× | — | 0.0% |
| DB | 7.2× | 1.0× | 0.7× | 16.4× | 0.0% |
| Lotte Innovate | 15.0× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 4.1% |
| Shinsegae Information & Communication | 6.3× | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.8× | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 11.1× | 1.3× | 0.5× | 8.6× | 0.8% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Itcencts / 아이티센씨티에스 / 031820 / KRX:031820
Source: KRX statistical information