KT&G

033780 · KOSPI · ₩033780 · KT&G

₩193,100▲ ₩5,000 (2.66%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩191,276

vs the current price (₩193,100)

Enterprise value
₩19T
Equity value
₩20T
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩131,358
−32.0%
Base
₩191,276
−0.9%
Bull
₩291,202
+50.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (20.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 20.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 8.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 10.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩6.9T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩105B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.3T
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩47B
Shares
103,810,456
Share price
₩193,100
Market cap
₩20T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩5.9T₩5.9T₩6.6T₩7.2T₩7.5T₩7.8T₩8T₩8.2T
Growth0.2%0.8%11.4%4.0%3.7%3.5%3.2%3.0%
EBIT₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.3T₩1.5T₩1.6T₩1.6T₩1.7T₩1.7T
EBIT margin19.9%20.1%20.4%20.9%20.9%20.9%20.9%20.9%
After-tax EBIT₩846B₩862B₩974B₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.2T
+ Depreciation———₩628B₩652B₩675B₩696B₩717B
− Capital spending₩513B₩797B₩674B₩780B₩809B₩837B₩864B₩890B
− Working capital₩145B₩546B₩282B₩111B₩107B₩105B₩99B₩96B
Free cash flow———₩832B₩871B₩907B₩945B₩980B
Discount factor———0.9320.8690.8100.7550.703
Present value———₩775B₩757B₩734B₩713B₩689B

Terminal value ₩21T, worth ₩15T today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩93,205 a share)Now 2.07×₩87,1430.93×₩99,2481.06×₩176,2001.89×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩13,832 a share)Now 14.0×₩116,3118.41×₩150,76310.9×₩200,33514.5×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩14,036 a share)Now 13.8×₩118,0248.41×₩152,98410.9×₩203,28514.5×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩202,200₩216,753₩234,671₩257,285₩286,735
6.8%₩185,024₩196,660₩210,701₩227,988₩249,806
7.3%₩170,593₩180,051₩191,276₩204,820₩221,495
7.8%₩158,300₩166,095₩175,217₩186,042₩199,105
8.3%₩147,706₩154,206₩161,722₩170,518₩180,956

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩20T
Enterprise value
₩20T
P/E
14.0×
P/B
2.1×
P/S
2.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩142,100₩107,100₩86,900₩91,500₩79,000
Market cap₩15T₩11T₩9T₩9.5T₩8.2T
P/E13.5×9.5×10.0×9.4×8.4×
P/B1.6×1.2×1.0×1.0×0.9×
P/S2.2×1.9×1.5×1.6×1.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.2%5.0%———

Versus similar companies

No similar companies listed yet.

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: KT&G / 033780 / KRX:033780

Source: KRX statistical information