KT&GKT&G
033780 · KOSPI · ₩033780 · KT&G
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩191,276
vs the current price (₩193,100)
- Enterprise value
- ₩19T
- Equity value
- ₩20T
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩131,358
- −32.0%
- Base
- ₩191,276
- −0.9%
- Bull
- ₩291,202
- +50.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (20.9%).
Revenue growth
- 4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 20.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 8.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 10.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩6.9T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩105B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩1.3T
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩47B
- Shares
- 103,810,456
- Share price
- ₩193,100
- Market cap
- ₩20T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩5.9T | ₩5.9T | ₩6.6T | ₩7.2T | ₩7.5T | ₩7.8T | ₩8T | ₩8.2T |
| Growth | 0.2% | 0.8% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.7T |
| EBIT margin | 19.9% | 20.1% | 20.4% | 20.9% | 20.9% | 20.9% | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩846B | ₩862B | ₩974B | ₩1.1T | ₩1.1T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩628B | ₩652B | ₩675B | ₩696B | ₩717B |
| − Capital spending | ₩513B | ₩797B | ₩674B | ₩780B | ₩809B | ₩837B | ₩864B | ₩890B |
| − Working capital | ₩145B | ₩546B | ₩282B | ₩111B | ₩107B | ₩105B | ₩99B | ₩96B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩832B | ₩871B | ₩907B | ₩945B | ₩980B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.869 | 0.810 | 0.755 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩775B | ₩757B | ₩734B | ₩713B | ₩689B |
Terminal value ₩21T, worth ₩15T today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩93,205 a share)Now 2.07× | ₩87,1430.93× | ₩99,2481.06× | ₩176,2001.89× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩13,832 a share)Now 14.0× | ₩116,3118.41× | ₩150,76310.9× | ₩200,33514.5× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩14,036 a share)Now 13.8× | ₩118,0248.41× | ₩152,98410.9× | ₩203,28514.5× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩202,200 | ₩216,753 | ₩234,671 | ₩257,285 | ₩286,735 |
| 6.8% | ₩185,024 | ₩196,660 | ₩210,701 | ₩227,988 | ₩249,806 |
| 7.3% | ₩170,593 | ₩180,051 | ₩191,276 | ₩204,820 | ₩221,495 |
| 7.8% | ₩158,300 | ₩166,095 | ₩175,217 | ₩186,042 | ₩199,105 |
| 8.3% | ₩147,706 | ₩154,206 | ₩161,722 | ₩170,518 | ₩180,956 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩20T
- Enterprise value
- ₩20T
- P/E
- 14.0×
- P/B
- 2.1×
- P/S
- 2.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 3.1%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩142,100 | ₩107,100 | ₩86,900 | ₩91,500 | ₩79,000 |
| Market cap | ₩15T | ₩11T | ₩9T | ₩9.5T | ₩8.2T |
| P/E | 13.5× | 9.5× | 10.0× | 9.4× | 8.4× |
| P/B | 1.6× | 1.2× | 1.0× | 1.0× | 0.9× |
| P/S | 2.2× | 1.9× | 1.5× | 1.6× | 1.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 4.2% | 5.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: KT&G / 033780 / KRX:033780
Source: KRX statistical information