Doosan Enerbility두산에너빌리티
034020 · KOSPI · ₩034020 · 두산에너빌리티
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩7,102
vs the current price (₩61,400)
- Enterprise value
- ₩13T
- Equity value
- ₩4.5T
- WACC
- 8.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 88% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩61,400, the model needs an operating margin of 23.4% every year (it uses 6.6%).
- Or revenue growth +34.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩7,102
- −88.4%
- Bull
- ₩22,573
- −63.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.6%).
Revenue growth
- 3.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 6.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -0.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.92
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.88, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩18T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩4.4T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩898B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩4.5T
- Shares
- 640,561,146
- Share price
- ₩61,400
- Market cap
- ₩39T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩18T | ₩16T | ₩17T | ₩18T | ₩19T | ₩20T | ₩20T | ₩21T |
| Growth | 14.1% | −7.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩1.5T | ₩1T | ₩763B | ₩1.2T | ₩1.2T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T |
| EBIT margin | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩1.1T | ₩738B | ₩553B | ₩877B | ₩906B | ₩935B | ₩964B | ₩993B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩568B | ₩587B | ₩606B | ₩625B | ₩643B |
| − Capital spending | ₩603B | ₩654B | ₩698B | ₩696B | ₩719B | ₩743B | ₩766B | ₩788B |
| − Working capital | −₩2.1T | ₩1.8T | −₩212B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.8B | −₩1.8B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩751B | ₩775B | ₩800B | ₩825B | ₩849B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.920 | 0.847 | 0.779 | 0.717 | 0.660 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩691B | ₩657B | ₩624B | ₩592B | ₩561B |
Terminal value ₩14T, worth ₩9.4T today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩12,738 a share)Now 4.82× | ₩16,9541.33× | ₩23,0861.81× | ₩88,1696.92× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | ₩7,768 | ₩9,091 | ₩10,647 | ₩12,505 | ₩14,762 |
| 8.2% | ₩6,314 | ₩7,431 | ₩8,730 | ₩10,258 | ₩12,083 |
| 8.7% | ₩5,051 | ₩6,005 | ₩7,102 | ₩8,377 | ₩9,878 |
| 9.2% | ₩3,944 | ₩4,765 | ₩5,702 | ₩6,780 | ₩8,032 |
| 9.7% | ₩2,965 | ₩3,679 | ₩4,486 | ₩5,406 | ₩6,464 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩39T
- Enterprise value
- ₩43T
- P/E
- 217.2×
- P/B
- 4.8×
- P/S
- 2.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩75,300 | ₩17,550 | ₩15,900 | ₩15,400 | ₩20,400 |
| Market cap | ₩48T | ₩11T | ₩10T | ₩9.9T | ₩13T |
| P/E | 569.1× | 100.9× | 183.2× | — | 26.4× |
| P/B | 6.2× | 1.5× | 1.4× | 1.4× | 2.1× |
| P/S | 2.8× | 0.7× | 0.6× | 0.6× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doosan Enerbility | 217.2× | 4.8× | 2.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 87.4× | 26.0× | 35.2× | 78.7× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,189.7× | 14.6× | 38.2× | 2,291.7× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,610.6× | 59.1× | 174.0× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 47.5× | 6.9× | 11.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Wonik IPS | 28.2× | 4.5× | 5.3× | 42.7× | 0.2% |
| Doosan Bobcat | 13,889.4× | 929.4× | 748.2× | — | 3.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 638.5× | 20.3× | 36.7× | 78.7× | 0.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Doosan Enerbility / 두산에너빌리티 / 034020 / KRX:034020
Source: KRX statistical information