Doosan Enerbility

034020 · KOSPI · ₩034020 · 두산에너빌리티

₩61,400▲ ₩2,500 (4.24%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩7,102

vs the current price (₩61,400)

Enterprise value
₩13T
Equity value
₩4.5T
WACC
8.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 88% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩61,400, the model needs an operating margin of 23.4% every year (it uses 6.6%).
  • Or revenue growth +34.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩7,102
−88.4%
Bull
₩22,573
−63.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -0.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.92

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.88, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩18T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩4.4T
+ Stakes and investments
₩898B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩4.5T
Shares
640,561,146
Share price
₩61,400
Market cap
₩39T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩18T₩16T₩17T₩18T₩19T₩20T₩20T₩21T
Growth14.1%−7.7%5.1%3.4%3.3%3.2%3.1%3.0%
EBIT₩1.5T₩1T₩763B₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.4T
EBIT margin8.3%6.3%4.5%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%
After-tax EBIT₩1.1T₩738B₩553B₩877B₩906B₩935B₩964B₩993B
+ Depreciation———₩568B₩587B₩606B₩625B₩643B
− Capital spending₩603B₩654B₩698B₩696B₩719B₩743B₩766B₩788B
− Working capital−₩2.1T₩1.8T−₩212B−₩1.8B−₩1.8B−₩1.8B−₩1.8B−₩1.8B
Free cash flow———₩751B₩775B₩800B₩825B₩849B
Discount factor———0.9200.8470.7790.7170.660
Present value———₩691B₩657B₩624B₩592B₩561B

Terminal value ₩14T, worth ₩9.4T today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩12,738 a share)Now 4.82×₩16,9541.33×₩23,0861.81×₩88,1696.92×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.7%₩7,768₩9,091₩10,647₩12,505₩14,762
8.2%₩6,314₩7,431₩8,730₩10,258₩12,083
8.7%₩5,051₩6,005₩7,102₩8,377₩9,878
9.2%₩3,944₩4,765₩5,702₩6,780₩8,032
9.7%₩2,965₩3,679₩4,486₩5,406₩6,464

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩39T
Enterprise value
₩43T
P/E
217.2×
P/B
4.8×
P/S
2.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩75,300₩17,550₩15,900₩15,400₩20,400
Market cap₩48T₩11T₩10T₩9.9T₩13T
P/E569.1×100.9×183.2×—26.4×
P/B6.2×1.5×1.4×1.4×2.1×
P/S2.8×0.7×0.6×0.6×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Doosan Enerbility217.2×4.8×2.2×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor87.4×26.0×35.2×78.7×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,189.7×14.6×38.2×2,291.7×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,610.6×59.1×174.0×—0.0%
EO Technics47.5×6.9×11.6×—0.0%
Wonik IPS28.2×4.5×5.3×42.7×0.2%
Doosan Bobcat13,889.4×929.4×748.2×—3.4%
Similar companies (median)638.5×20.3×36.7×78.7×0.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Doosan Enerbility / 두산에너빌리티 / 034020 / KRX:034020

Source: KRX statistical information