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Baiksan

035150 · KOSPI · ₩035150 · 백산

₩9,960▲ ₩10 (0.10%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩37,977

vs the current price (₩9,960)

Enterprise value
₩801B
Equity value
₩751B
WACC
6.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 281% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩9,960, the model needs an operating margin of 4.2% every year (it uses 10.9%).
  • Margins ranged from 6.3% to 15.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 5.6× against a typical 5.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩21,070
+111.5%
Base
₩37,977
+281.3%
Bull
₩68,523
+588.0%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 10.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 22.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩505B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩63B
+ Stakes and investments
₩15B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩2B
Shares
19,771,079
Share price
₩9,960
Market cap
₩197B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩418B₩497B₩505B₩515B₩527B₩540B₩554B₩571B
Growth−12.2%19.0%1.6%2.0%2.2%2.5%2.7%3.0%
EBIT₩53B₩77B₩54B₩56B₩57B₩59B₩60B₩62B
EBIT margin12.7%15.4%10.6%10.9%10.9%10.9%10.9%10.9%
After-tax EBIT₩39B₩55B₩39B₩41B₩42B₩43B₩44B₩45B
+ Depreciation———₩17B₩17B₩18B₩18B₩19B
− Capital spending₩11B₩37B₩12B₩22B₩22B₩23B₩23B₩24B
− Working capital₩6.1B−₩2.6B₩5.2B₩2.2B₩2.5B₩2.9B₩3.2B₩3.7B
Free cash flow———₩34B₩34B₩35B₩36B₩36B
Discount factor———0.9380.8800.8260.7740.727
Present value———₩32B₩30B₩29B₩28B₩26B

Terminal value ₩903B, worth ₩656B today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩13,661 a share)Now 0.73×₩10,8600.79×₩14,5021.06×₩17,8561.31×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,794 a share)Now 5.55×₩6,6633.71×₩9,9635.55×₩13,4057.47×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,836 a share)Now 5.42×₩6,8183.71×₩10,1965.55×₩13,7187.47×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.6%₩40,509₩44,437₩49,450₩56,073₩65,235
6.1%₩36,175₩39,225₩43,012₩47,846₩54,232
6.6%₩32,619₩35,037₩37,977₩41,628₩46,288
7.1%₩29,647₩31,600₩33,931₩36,765₩40,284
7.6%₩27,129₩28,729₩30,610₩32,857₩35,587

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩197B
Enterprise value
₩251B
P/E
5.6×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩13,060₩13,160₩10,650₩8,180₩8,230
Market cap₩258B₩260B₩211B₩162B₩163B
P/E7.7×4.3×5.1×3.6×8.5×
P/B1.0×1.0×1.0×0.9×1.1×
P/S0.5×0.5×0.5×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.4%2.7%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Baiksan5.6×0.7×0.4×—4.5%
Hankook Tire & Technology5.8×0.5×0.3×—4.0%
Kumho Tire3.1×0.6×0.3×—0.0%
Pum-Tech Korea20.1×2.6×2.1×—0.7%
Dongwon Systems9.7×0.7×0.4×5.7×2.8%
Nexen Tire3.5×0.3×0.2×—3.6%
PI Advanced Materials12.8×1.2×1.7×5.2×2.2%
Similar companies (median)7.8×0.6×0.4×5.5×2.5%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Baiksan / 백산 / 035150 / KRX:035150

Source: KRX statistical information