Kangwon Land강원랜드
035250 · KOSPI · ₩035250 · 강원랜드
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩16,427
vs the current price (₩13,820)
- Enterprise value
- ₩3.3T
- Equity value
- ₩3.5T
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩11,104
- −19.7%
- Base
- ₩16,427
- +18.9%
- Bull
- ₩25,396
- +83.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (16.9%).
Revenue growth
- 5.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (5.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 16.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.5T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩205B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩47B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 213,940,500
- Share price
- ₩13,820
- Market cap
- ₩3T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.8T |
| Growth | 9.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩282B | ₩286B | ₩235B | ₩262B | ₩274B | ₩285B | ₩295B | ₩304B |
| EBIT margin | 20.3% | 20.0% | 15.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩205B | ₩207B | ₩171B | ₩190B | ₩199B | ₩207B | ₩214B | ₩220B |
| + Depreciation | ₩80B | ₩78B | ₩84B | ₩87B | ₩91B | ₩94B | ₩98B | ₩101B |
| − Capital spending | ₩71B | ₩119B | ₩122B | ₩112B | ₩117B | ₩121B | ₩126B | ₩129B |
| − Working capital | ₩110B | −₩308B | ₩2T | ₩30B | ₩29B | ₩27B | ₩24B | ₩21B |
| Free cash flow | ₩103B | ₩474B | −₩1.9T | ₩135B | ₩144B | ₩153B | ₩162B | ₩171B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩126B | ₩125B | ₩124B | ₩122B | ₩120B |
Terminal value ₩3.8T, worth ₩2.6T today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩18,274 a share)Now 0.76× | ₩15,5390.85× | ₩18,0290.99× | ₩31,1911.71× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,544 a share)Now 8.95× | ₩12,8308.31× | ₩17,14211.1× | ₩53,99535.0× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩2,054 a share)Now 6.73× | ₩17,0708.31× | ₩22,80811.1× | ₩71,84235.0× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩17,445 | ₩18,640 | ₩20,109 | ₩21,961 | ₩24,369 |
| 6.8% | ₩15,977 | ₩16,929 | ₩18,076 | ₩19,486 | ₩21,264 |
| 7.3% | ₩14,743 | ₩15,513 | ₩16,427 | ₩17,528 | ₩18,882 |
| 7.8% | ₩13,691 | ₩14,324 | ₩15,063 | ₩15,939 | ₩16,996 |
| 8.3% | ₩12,785 | ₩13,310 | ₩13,916 | ₩14,625 | ₩15,466 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩3T
- Enterprise value
- ₩2.8T
- P/E
- 9.0×
- P/B
- 0.8×
- P/S
- 2.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- 9.0×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩18,950 | ₩15,970 | ₩16,000 | ₩23,200 | ₩24,050 |
| Market cap | ₩4.1T | ₩3.4T | ₩3.4T | ₩5T | ₩5.1T |
| P/E | 12.7× | 7.5× | 10.0× | 42.9× | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | 0.9× | 0.9× | 1.5× | 1.6× |
| P/S | 2.7× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 3.9× | 6.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1× | 8.7× | 9.0× | 16.5× | 190.6× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kangwon Land | 9.0× | 0.8× | 2.0× | 9.0× | 0.0% |
| Paradise | 11.7× | 0.5× | 0.7× | — | 1.6% |
| Seobu T&D | 7.3× | 0.7× | 2.4× | 10.8× | 0.9% |
| Grand Korea Leisure | 10.5× | 1.1× | 1.1× | 4.6× | 5.2% |
| Ananti | — | 0.6× | 1.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Mona Yongpyong | — | 0.3× | 0.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Namhwa Industrial | 9.1× | 0.3× | 3.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 9.8× | 0.5× | 1.4× | 7.7× | 0.4% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Kangwon Land / 강원랜드 / 035250 / KRX:035250
Source: KRX statistical information