Geumhwa PSC금화피에스시
036190 · KOSDAQ · ₩036190 · 금화피에스시
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩162,234
vs the current price (₩30,200)
- Enterprise value
- ₩788B
- Equity value
- ₩973B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 437% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩30,200, the model needs an operating margin of 2.2% every year (it uses 10.7%).
- Today's P/E is 6.0× against a typical 6.0× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩106,156
- +251.5%
- Base
- ₩162,234
- +437.2%
- Bull
- ₩258,752
- +756.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.7%).
Revenue growth
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 15.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 11.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 35.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.21, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩448B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩135B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩51B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩7.5M
- Shares
- 6,000,000
- Share price
- ₩30,200
- Market cap
- ₩181B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩338B | ₩340B | ₩423B | ₩535B | ₩617B | ₩686B | ₩735B | ₩757B |
| Growth | 35.9% | 0.8% | 24.5% | 19.5% | 15.3% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩43B | ₩36B | ₩44B | ₩57B | ₩66B | ₩73B | ₩79B | ₩81B |
| EBIT margin | 12.9% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩32B | ₩26B | ₩32B | ₩42B | ₩48B | ₩53B | ₩57B | ₩59B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩15B | ₩17B | ₩19B | ₩21B | ₩21B |
| − Capital spending | ₩22B | ₩11B | ₩2.6B | ₩19B | ₩22B | ₩24B | ₩26B | ₩26B |
| − Working capital | ₩30B | −₩25B | ₩45B | ₩31B | ₩29B | ₩25B | ₩17B | ₩7.8B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩6.8B | ₩14B | ₩24B | ₩35B | ₩46B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩6.3B | ₩13B | ₩19B | ₩26B | ₩32B |
Terminal value ₩984B, worth ₩692B today: 88% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩65,441 a share)Now 0.46× | ₩30,2000.46× | ₩34,6500.53× | ₩44,5770.68× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩4,996 a share)Now 6.04× | ₩17,3303.47× | ₩30,2006.04× | ₩41,0078.21× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩9,487 a share)Now 3.18× | ₩32,9063.47× | ₩57,3446.04× | ₩77,8658.21× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩173,415 | ₩183,716 | ₩196,371 | ₩212,306 | ₩233,007 |
| 6.8% | ₩159,621 | ₩167,738 | ₩177,511 | ₩189,514 | ₩204,627 |
| 7.3% | ₩148,043 | ₩154,541 | ₩162,234 | ₩171,494 | ₩182,866 |
| 7.8% | ₩138,193 | ₩143,463 | ₩149,615 | ₩156,896 | ₩165,660 |
| 8.3% | ₩129,715 | ₩134,037 | ₩139,021 | ₩144,836 | ₩151,720 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩181B
- Enterprise value
- ₩45B
- P/E
- 6.0×
- P/B
- 0.5×
- P/S
- 0.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 5.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩29,850 | ₩24,550 | ₩26,100 | ₩28,750 | ₩31,850 |
| Market cap | ₩179B | ₩147B | ₩157B | ₩173B | ₩191B |
| P/E | 5.9× | 3.7× | 4.1× | 6.2× | 8.3× |
| P/B | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.6× | 0.7× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.7× | 0.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 5.4% | 5.7% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geumhwa PSC | 6.0× | 0.5× | 0.4× | — | 5.3% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction | 20.8× | 1.0× | 0.3× | — | 1.0% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction | — | 1.2× | 0.6× | — | 0.0% |
| GS Engineering & Construction | 17.1× | 0.5× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| DL E&C | 3.4× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 1.6% |
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering | 14.3× | 1.4× | 1.1× | 8.0× | 0.0% |
| Ipark Hyundai Development | 8.6× | 0.5× | 0.4× | — | 2.9% |
| Similar companies (median) | 14.3× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 8.0× | 1.3% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Geumhwa PSC / 금화피에스시 / 036190 / KRX:036190
Source: KRX statistical information