Osang Healthcare오상헬스케어
036220 · KOSDAQ · ₩036220 · 오상헬스케어
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩34
vs the current price (₩5,090)
- Enterprise value
- −₩21B
- Equity value
- ₩491M
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 99% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩5,090, the model needs an operating margin of 7.3% every year (it uses 0.2%).
- Margins ranged from −30.8% to 40.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
- The group includes a financial business (an insurer, bank or broker), whose investments and minority shareholders are left out here. A sum-of-the-parts view usually fits groups like this better.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- ₩34
- −99.3%
- Bull
- ₩1,117
- −78.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.2%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 0.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 10.9%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 13.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 33.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩96B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩22B
- Shares
- 14,309,416
- Share price
- ₩5,090
- Market cap
- ₩73B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩356B | ₩80B | ₩129B | ₩87B | ₩81B | ₩78B | ₩78B | ₩80B |
| Growth | 83.5% | −77.4% | 59.8% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩143B | −₩25B | ₩2.4B | ₩174M | ₩162M | ₩156M | ₩156M | ₩161M |
| EBIT margin | 40.1% | −30.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩104B | −₩18B | ₩1.8B | ₩126M | ₩117M | ₩113M | ₩113M | ₩117M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩9.5B | ₩8.8B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.8B |
| − Capital spending | ₩36B | ₩13B | ₩19B | ₩12B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B |
| − Working capital | −₩55B | ₩29B | ₩6B | −₩3.2B | −₩1.9B | −₩944M | −₩52M | ₩779M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩907M | −₩214M | −₩1.1B | −₩2B | −₩2.9B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩846M | −₩186M | −₩916M | −₩1.5B | −₩2B |
Terminal value −₩25B, worth −₩17B today: 82% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩19,519 a share)Now 0.26× | ₩6,4200.33× | ₩12,6520.65× | ₩16,3260.84× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2024, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩238 | — | — | — | — |
| 6.8% | ₩352 | ₩134 | — | — | — |
| 7.3% | ₩449 | ₩260 | ₩34 | — | — |
| 7.8% | ₩531 | ₩366 | ₩171 | — | — |
| 8.3% | ₩602 | ₩456 | ₩286 | ₩86 | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩73B
- Enterprise value
- ₩49B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.8×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 3.9%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩11,840 | ₩11,390 |
| Market cap | ₩169B | ₩163B |
| P/E | 54.5× | — |
| P/B | 0.6× | 0.6× |
| P/S | 1.3× | 2.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 1.7% | 4.4% |
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Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Osang Healthcare / 오상헬스케어 / 036220 / KRX:036220
Source: KRX statistical information